ArticleRoyal Society open science2023
Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- A narrative review of heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes and vaccine efficacy: strategizing pandemic preparedness in Africa.Frontiers in public health · 2026Review
- The tale of two assumptions: incorporating healthcare-seeking behaviour in epidemic forecasting.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Mozambique and Zimbabwe during the first 3 years of the pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Assessing the long-term persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in Guinea: insights from post-epidemic sentinel syndromic surveillance data.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Underreporting of Cases in the COVID-19 Outbreak of Borriana (Spain) during Mass Gathering Events in March 2020: A Cross-Sectional Study.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries.BMC public health · 2024Article
- The determinants of COVID-19 case reporting across Africa.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Country reported case counts suggested a slow spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Owing to inadequate public awareness, unestablished monitoring practices, limited testing and stigmas, there might exist extensive under-ascertainment of the true number of cases, especially at the beginning of the novel epidemic. We developed a compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early epidemics in 54 African countries. Data on the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to fit the model for the time period with no or little massive national interventions yet in each country. We estimated that the mean basic reproduction number is 2.02 (s.d. 0.7), with a range between 1.12 (Zambia) and 3.64 (Nigeria). The mean overall report rate was estimated to be 5.37% (s.d. 5.71%), with the highest 30.41% in Libya and the lowest 0.02% in São Tomé and Príncipe. An average of 5.46% (s.d. 6.4%) of all infected cases were severe cases and 66.74% (s.d. 17.28%) were asymptomatic ones. The estimated low reporting rates in Africa suggested a clear need for improved reporting and surveillance systems in these countries.
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