ArticleNature communications2023
Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 59 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming.Nature communications · 2025Article
- ENSO amplifies global vegetation resilience variability in a changing climate.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Synergies Between Observed Warming and ENSO Episodes on Extreme Events.Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · 2025Article
- Ten new insights in climate science 2024.One earth (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2025Review
- Combined dynamical-deep learning ENSO forecasts.Nature communications · 2025Article
- El Niño southern oscillation, weather patterns, and bacillary dysentery in the Yangtze River Basin, China.Global health research and policy · 2024Article
- Article
- Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Financial markets value skillful forecasts of seasonal climate.Nature communications · 2024Article
- "Beyond the flood: Exploring the psychosocial consequences and resilience challenges in the aftermath of "El Niño" in Tumbes, Peru".The journal of climate change and healthArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. To what extent the impact affects the macroeconomy, how long the impact lasts, and how the impact may change in a warming climate are important questions for the field. Using a smooth nonlinear climate-economy model fitted with historical data, here we find a damaging impact from an El Niño which increases for a further three years after initial shock, amounting to multi-trillion US dollars in economic loss; we attribute a loss of US$2.1 T and US$3.9 T globally to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 extreme El Niño events, far greater than that based on tangible losses. We find impacts from La Niña are asymmetric and weaker, and estimate a gain of only US$0.06 T from the 1998-99 extreme La Niña event. Under climate change, economic loss grows exponentially with increased ENSO variability. Under a high-emission scenario, increased ENSO variability causes an additional median loss of US$33 T to the global economy at a 3% discount rate aggregated over the remainder of the 21st century. Thus, exacerbated economic damage from changing ENSO in a warming climate should be considered in assessments of mitigation strategies.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.