ArticlePloS one2023
The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal patterns and 2025 forecasting of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Beijing, China: a 21-year population-based study (2004-2024).BMC public health · 2026Article
- Influence of Health System Affiliation and Pain Manifestation on Advanced Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk: A Retrospective Cohort Study in a Latin American Population.Dentistry journal · 2024Article
- Estimation of burden of cancer incidence and mortality in India: based on global burden of disease study 1990-2021.BMC cancer · 2024Article
- Epidemiology and SARIMA model of deaths in a tertiary comprehensive hospital in Hangzhou from 2015 to 2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveThis study analyzes the effect of the Brazilian National Oral Health Policy (NOHP) on oral cancer mortality rates (OCMR).
methodThis is an ecological study with secondary oral cancer death data, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Annual death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (1996-2019). The outcome was the OCMR, standardized by gender and age We considered the NOHP, categorized as "0" (before its implementation), from 1996 to 2004, and "1 to 15", from 2005 to 2019. ARIMA modeling was carried out for temporal analysis, and regression coefficient estimation (RC).
resultsThe Brazilian NOHP implementation was associated with an increase in OCMR in the North region (CR = 0.16; p = 0.022) and with a decrease in the Southeast region (CR = -0.04; p<0.001), but did not affect the other macro-regions nor Brazil. The forecast models estimated an increase in OCMR for the North, and Northeast, a decrease for the Southeast, and stability for the South and Brazil.
conclusionThe Brazilian NOHP is not being effective in reducing the OCMR. The trends behaved differently in the Brazilian territory, highlighting health inequities. We recommend that the NOHP strengthen the oral health care network, incorporating oral cancer as a notifiable disease, adopting strategies for prevention, screening, and providing opportunities for early treatment of the disease.
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