Population effectiveness of endoscopy screening for mortality reduction in gastric cancer.

Objectives: No randomized controlled trials have compared endoscopic screening with no screening for gastric cancer on an intention-to-screen basis, and the population-based evidence is insufficient. This study aimed to identify factors contributing to the population effectiveness of cancer screening, estimate the number needed to screen (NNS) to reduce one gastric cancer-related death, and evaluate the expected mortality-rate reduction in endoscopic screening for gastric cancer in 184 countries. Methods: Factors contributing to the attributable risk, NNS, and mortality-rate reduction were identified. A rapid review was performed in PubMed to estimate the pooled relative risk of endoscopic screening compared to that of no screening for mortality reduction. NNSs and mortality-rate reduction were estimated using the pooled relative risk and GLOBOCAN data. Results: The crude mortality rate, the effectiveness of the screening modality, and the screened rate contributed to the attributable risk, NNS, and mortality-rate reduction in cancer screening. The pooled relative risk was 0.58 in endoscopy screening compared to that in no screening. NNSs and expected mortality-rate reduction differed across countries and ranged from 2522 to 91,575 and 0.2 to 7.9 (per 100,000 individuals) for the screened rate of 20%, respectively. Conclusions: In addition to the effectiveness of the used modality, the disease burden and screened rate were important in the population effectiveness of cancer screening. Regarding the high NNSs and the low expected mortality-rate reduction, population-based endoscopic screening seems not to be effective in many countries, and these results are meaningful in decision-making regarding the introduction of endoscopic screening.