Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37728669›Full record

ReviewScience progress

World scientists' warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot.

Joseph J Merz, Phoebe Barnard, William E Rees, Dane Smith, Mat Maroni, Christopher J Rhodes, Julia H Dederer, Nandita Bajaj, Michael K Joy, Thomas Wiedmann and 1 more

Open access · diamondAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Science progress. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
35.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 63 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Estimating the total mortality of seabirds following a marine heat wave.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Microbes Saving Lives and Reducing Suffering.Microbial biotechnology · 2025
    Article
  8. Complex systems perspective in assessing risks in artificial intelligence.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2024
    Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 5 institutions in 5 countries.

Joseph J MerzMerz Institute, Whitianga, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0002-1808-6477
Phoebe BarnardStable Planet Alliance, Calabasas, USA.
William E ReesUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Dane SmithOgilvy, London, UK.
Mat MaroniMerz Institute, Whitianga, New Zealand.
Christopher J RhodesFresh-lands Environmental Actions, Reading, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2929-4466
Julia H DedererMerz Institute, Whitianga, New Zealand.
Nandita BajajStable Planet Alliance, Calabasas, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0300-1573
Michael K JoyMerz Institute, Whitianga, New Zealand.
Thomas WiedmannSustainability Assessment Program, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Rory SutherlandOgilvy, London, UK.
Antioch University · USUniversity of British Columbia · CAUniversity of Cape Town · ZAUNSW Sydney · AUVictoria University of Wellington · NZ

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Previously, anthropogenic ecological overshoot has been identified as a fundamental cause of the myriad symptoms we see around the globe today from biodiversity loss and ocean acidification to the disturbing rise in novel entities and climate change. In the present paper, we have examined this more deeply, and explore the behavioural drivers of overshoot, providing evidence that overshoot is itself a symptom of a deeper, more subversive modern crisis of human behaviour. We work to name and frame this crisis as 'the Human Behavioural Crisis' and propose the crisis be recognised globally as a critical intervention point for tackling ecological overshoot. We demonstrate how current interventions are largely physical, resource intensive, slow-moving and focused on addressing the symptoms of ecological overshoot (such as climate change) rather than the distal cause (maladaptive behaviours). We argue that even in the best-case scenarios, symptom-level interventions are unlikely to avoid catastrophe or achieve more than ephemeral progress. We explore three drivers of the behavioural crisis in depth: economic growth; marketing; and pronatalism. These three drivers directly impact the three 'levers' of overshoot: consumption, waste and population. We demonstrate how the maladaptive behaviours of overshoot stemming from these three drivers have been catalysed and perpetuated by the intentional exploitation of previously adaptive human impulses. In the final sections of this paper, we propose an interdisciplinary emergency response to the behavioural crisis by, amongst other things, the shifting of social norms relating to reproduction, consumption and waste. We seek to highlight a critical disconnect that is an ongoing societal gulf in communication between those that know such as scientists working within limits to growth, and those members of the citizenry, largely influenced by social scientists and industry, that must act.

Indexed as

Conservation of Natural ResourcesSeawaterBiodiversityClimate ChangeHumansHydrogen-Ion Concentrationbehaviourconsumptionecological overshootecologyeconomicsmarketingpopulationpronatalismpsychologyscientists warning

Identifiers

PMID37728669
PMCPMC10515534
OpenAlexW4386878206

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.