Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37721937›Full record

ReviewPLoS genetics2023

Review and further developments in statistical corrections for Winner's Curse in genetic association studies.

Amanda Forde, Gibran Hemani, John Ferguson

Open access · goldAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in PLoS genetics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
9.4field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 30 citations in OpenAlex.

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  15. Personality Genomics.Annual review of psychology · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Amanda FordeSchool of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland.ORCID 0000-0002-7940-3413
Gibran HemaniMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Grove, Bristol, BS8 2BN, United Kingdom.
John FergusonHRB Clinical Research Facility, NUI Galway, Galway, Ireland.
Ollscoil na Gaillimhe – University of Galway · IEUniversity of Bristol · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UU_00032/1Wellcome Trust 208806/Z/17/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are commonly used to identify genomic variants that are associated with complex traits, and estimate the magnitude of this association for each variant. However, it has been widely observed that the association estimates of variants tend to be lower in a replication study than in the study that discovered those associations. A phenomenon known as Winner's Curse is responsible for this upward bias present in association estimates of significant variants in the discovery study. We review existing Winner's Curse correction methods which require only GWAS summary statistics in order to make adjustments. In addition, we propose modifications to improve existing methods and propose a novel approach which uses the parametric bootstrap. We evaluate and compare methods, first using a wide variety of simulated data sets and then, using real data sets for three different traits. The metric, estimated mean squared error (MSE) over significant SNPs, was primarily used for method assessment. Our results indicate that widely used conditional likelihood based methods tend to perform poorly. The other considered methods behave much more similarly, with our proposed bootstrap method demonstrating very competitive performance. To complement this review, we have developed an R package, 'winnerscurse' which can be used to implement these various Winner's Curse adjustment methods to GWAS summary statistics.

Indexed as

Genome-Wide Association StudyPolymorphism, Single NucleotideBiasGenetic Association StudiesLikelihood FunctionsPhenotype

Identifiers

PMID37721937
PMCPMC10538662
OpenAlexW4386825733

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.