Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37718603›Full record

ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2023

Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate.

Daniel Hoyer, James S Bennett, Jenny Reddish, Samantha Holder, Robert Howard, Majid Benam, Jill Levine, Francis Ludlow, Gary Feinman, Peter Turchin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Complex systems perspective in assessing risks in artificial intelligence.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2024
    Article
  8. Cultural tightness and resilience against environmental shocks in nonindustrial societies.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  9. Article
  10. The Climatic Resilience of the Sasanian Empire.Human ecology: an interdisciplinary journal · 2024
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023
    Article
  13. Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Daniel HoyerComplexity Science Hub, 1080 Vienna, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-2675-257X
James S BennettComplexity Science Hub, 1080 Vienna, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-3051-1672
Jenny ReddishComplexity Science Hub, 1080 Vienna, Austria.
Samantha HolderEvolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576, USA.
Robert HowardEvolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576, USA.
Majid BenamComplexity Science Hub, 1080 Vienna, Austria.
Jill LevineEvolution Institute, San Antonio, FL 33576, USA.
Francis LudlowTrinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland.
Gary FeinmanField Museum of Natural History, Chicago, IL 60605, USA.
Peter TurchinComplexity Science Hub, 1080 Vienna, Austria.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate variability and natural hazards like floods and earthquakes can act as environmental shocks or socioecological stressors leading to instability and suffering throughout human history. Yet, societies experience a wide range of outcomes when facing such challenges: some suffer from social unrest, civil violence or complete collapse; others prove more resilient and maintain key social functions. We currently lack a clear, generally agreed-upon conceptual framework and evidentiary base to explore what causes these divergent outcomes. Here, we discuss efforts to develop such a framework through the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) programme. We illustrate that the impact of environmental stressors is mediated through extant cultural, political and economic structures that evolve over extended timescales (decades to centuries). These structures can generate high resilience to major shocks, facilitate positive adaptation, or, alternatively, undermine collective action and lead to unrest, violence and even societal collapse. By exposing the ways that different societies have reacted to crises over their lifetime, this framework can help identify the factors and complex social-ecological interactions that either bolster or undermine resilience to contemporary climate shocks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeFloodsDatabases, FactualHeadHumansSocial Interactioncliodynamicscollective actionglobal historypolycrisisSeshatsocietal crisis

Identifiers

PMID37718603
PMCPMC10505849

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.