Small-scale farmer responses to the double exposure of climate change and market integration.

Anthropologists have long studied how small-scale societies manage climate variation. Here, we investigate how Yucatec Maya subsistence farmers respond to climate stress, and the ways in which market integration may enhance or disturb response stategies. Using information on harvest returns, climate perceptions, household economics and helping networks, modelling results show that as farmers rely more on market inputs (e.g. seed, tractors, fertilizer) for a successful yield, the reasons given for a bad harvest shift from climate variables to access to quality inputs. We also find that social and economic diversification is key to mediating a household's experience of climate and market shocks. The Maya are astute stewards of climate knowledge, and have effective social and economic means to mitigate potential fluctuations in food availability. In the transition from a subsistence to a market integrated economy, these traditional strategies become strained. Reliance on market inputs forges a more rigid food production system that conflicts with the diversity and flexibility on which traditional strategies depend to manage climate variation. Moving forward, the best policies would be those that facilitate maintaining an equal footing in both a subsistence maize economy, while incorporating new market opportunities. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.