ArticleScientific reports2023
The diffusion metrics of African swine fever in wild boar.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Genetically Distinct African Swine Fever Virus Genotype II Variant in Wild Boar, Spain, 2025-2026.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Early African Swine Fever Dynamics in Wild Boar After Reemergence in Catalonia, Spain: Surveillance-Based Estimates of Initial Spread.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
- Genetic connectivity and admixture zones shape the spread of African swine fever in wild Boar populations in North-western Italy.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Attitudes and Beliefs of Wild Boar Hunters in Croatia Towards Preventing and Controlling African Swine Fever.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Pathogenicity and virulence of African swine fever virus.Virulence · 2024Review
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
To control African swine fever (ASF) efficiently, easily interpretable metrics of the outbreak dynamics are needed to plan and adapt the required measures. We found that the spread pattern of African Swine Fever cases in wild boar follows the mechanics of a diffusion process, at least in the early phase, for the cases that occurred in Germany. Following incursion into a previously unaffected area, infection disseminates locally within a naive and abundant wild boar population. Using real case data for Germany, we derive statistics about the time differences and distances between consecutive case reports. With the use of these statistics, we generate an ensemble of random walkers (continuous time random walks, CTRW) that resemble the properties of the observed outbreak pattern as one possible realization of all possible disease dissemination patterns. The trained random walker ensemble yields the diffusion constant, the affected area, and the outbreak velocity of early ASF spread in wild boar. These methods are easy to interpret, robust, and may be adapted for different regions. Therefore, diffusion metrics can be useful descriptors of early disease dynamics and help facilitate efficient control of African Swine Fever.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.