Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37704643›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions.

Ploy Achakulwisut, Peter Erickson, Céline Guivarch, Roberto Schaeffer, Elina Brutschin, Steve Pye

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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  4. Unlocking solar-derived CONature communications · 2026
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  14. Evaluation of lab-defined syngas and acetate as substrates for HApplied microbiology and biotechnology · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Ploy AchakulwisutStockholm Environment Institute, Seattle, WA, USA. ploy@sei.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8724-5411
Peter EricksonStockholm Environment Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
Céline GuivarchInternational Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), École des Pont, Nogent-sur-Marne, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9405-256X
Roberto SchaefferCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3709-7323
Elina BrutschinInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7040-3057
Steve PyeUCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1793-2552

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking on energy transitions. However, there is a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory, and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot, global coal, oil, and natural gas supply (intended for all uses) decline on average by 95%, 62%, and 42%, respectively, from 2020 to 2050, but the long-term role of gas is highly variable. Higher-gas pathways are enabled by higher carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but are likely associated with inadequate model representation of regional CO

Identifiers

PMID37704643
PMCPMC10499994

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.