ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2023
Extending susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible epidemics to allow for gradual waning of immunity.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Resurgence of large-scale influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks: Modeling the interplay of transmission, loss of immunity, and vaccination.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Seasonal forcing and waning immunity drive the sub-annual periodicity of the COVID-19 epidemic.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Infinitesimal homeostasis in mass-action systems.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Leaky or polarised immunity: Non-Markovian modelling highlights the impact of immune memory assumptions.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Modelling immunity gaps to quantify infection resurgences.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Population Immunity After the COVID-19 Pandemic in Austria: Analysis of National Wastewater Data.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Mathematical Modeling of Influenza Dynamics: Integrating Seasonality and Gradual Waning Immunity.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Impact of exposure frequency on disease burden of the common cold - A mathematical modeling perspective.PloS one · 2025Article
- Optimal vaccination policy to prevent endemicity: a stochastic model.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Extending susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible epidemics to allow for gradual waning of immunity.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) epidemic models assume that individual immunity wanes in one leap, from complete immunity to complete susceptibility. For many diseases immunity on the contrary wanes gradually, something that has become even more evident during COVID-19 pandemic where also recently infected have a reinfection risk, and booster vaccines are given to increase immunity. Here, a novel mathematical model is presented allowing for the gradual decay of immunity following linear or exponential waning functions. The two new models and the SIRS model are compared assuming all three models have the same cumulative immunity. When no intervention is put in place, we find that the long-term prevalence is higher for the models with gradual waning. If aiming for herd immunity by continuous vaccination, it is shown that larger vaccine quantities are required when immunity wanes gradually compared with results obtained from the SIRS model, and this difference is the biggest for the most realistic assumption of exponentially waning of immunity. For parameter choices fitting to COVID-19, the critical amount of vaccine supply is about 50% higher if immunity wanes linearly, and more than 150% higher when immunity wanes exponentially, when compared with the classic SIRS epidemic model.
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