Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37676833›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2024

Validating a model for predicting breast cancer and nonbreast cancer death in women aged 55 years and older.

Emily A Wolfson, Mara A Schonberg, A Heather Eliassen, Kimberly A Bertrand, Yurii B Shvetsov, Bernard A Rosner, Julie R Palmer, Andrea Z LaCroix, Rowan T Chlebowski, Rebecca A Nelson and 1 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
0.7field-weighted citation impact, top 23% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.

Emily A WolfsonDivision of General Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.
Mara A SchonbergDivision of General Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5162-5922
A Heather EliassenDepartment of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Channing Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3961-6609
Kimberly A BertrandSlone Epidemiology Center at Boston University and Department of Medicine, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4565-7618
Yurii B ShvetsovUniversity of Hawaii Cancer Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5131-9618
Bernard A RosnerDepartment of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Channing Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6907-0056
Julie R PalmerSlone Epidemiology Center at Boston University and Department of Medicine, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6534-335X
Andrea Z LaCroixHerbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0225-2749
Rowan T ChlebowskiThe Lundquist Institute, Torrance, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4212-6184
Rebecca A NelsonDepartment of Computational and Quantitative Medicine, City of Hope, Duarte, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1678-6285
Long H NgoDivision of General Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9349-7981
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center · USBoston University · USBrigham and Women's Hospital · USCity of Hope · USUniversity of California San Diego · USUniversity of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa · US

Funding

Statistical MethodsP01CA087969 · NCI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI ROSNER, BERNARD A · 2000 to 2019
$77.8M
University of Hawaii Cancer Center CCSGP30CA071789 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI GERTRAUD MASKARINEC · 1996 to 2026
$56.2M
WOMEN'S HEALTH INITIATIVE - CLINICAL COORDINATING CENTER: TASK AREA B - LONG LIFE STUDY VISIT 2 LIMITED HOME VISIT75N92021D00001 · NHLBI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI ANDERSON, GARNET L. · 2021 to 2025
$52.0M
Understanding Population Differences in Cancer: The MEC StudyU01CA164973 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA · PI HAIMAN, CHRISTOPHER ALAN, LE MARCHAND, LOIC · 2015 to 2025
$37.4M
A Follow-up Study for Causes of Cancer in Black WomenU01CA164974 · NCI · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI Kimberly A. Bertrand, Yvette C Cozier · 2017 to 2026
$24.0M
Long Term Multidisciplinary Study of Cancer in Women: The Nurses Health StudyUM1CA186107 · NCI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI ELIASSEN, A. HEATHER, STAMPFER, MEIR · 2014 to 2023
$22.3M
WOMEN'S HEALTH INITIATIVE (WHI) REGIONAL CENTER (RC): TASK AREA A AND A275N92021D00002 · NHLBI · STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO · PI WACTAWSKI-WENDE, JEAN · 2021 to 2025
$6.9M
WOMEN'S HEALTH INITIATIVE (WHI) REGIONAL CENTER (RC) - TO EXERCISE OPTION PERIOD ONE (1) AND REVISE CONTRACT ARTICLES.75N92021D00004 · NHLBI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI STEFANICK, MARCIA · 2021 to 2025
$6.5M
WOMEN'S HEALTH INITIATIVE (WHI) REGIONAL CENTER (RC) - TO EXERCISE OPTION PERIOD ONE (1) AND REVISE CONTRACT ARTICLES.75N92021D00003 · NHLBI · OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY · PI JACKSON, REBECCA · 2021 to 2025
$5.0M
WOMEN'S HEALTH INITIATIVE (WHI) REGIONAL CENTER (RC) - TO EXERCISE OPTION PERIOD ONE (1) AND REVISE CONTRACT ARTICLES.75N92021D00005 · NHLBI · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI VITOLINS, MARA · 2021 to 2025
$4.2M
A prediction model to simultaneously estimate personal risk of breast cancer and death from other causes in women aged 55 and olderR01CA242747 · NCI · BETH ISRAEL DEACONESS MEDICAL CENTER · PI SCHONBERG, MARA A · 2020 to 2023
$2.3M
Improving Breast Cancer Risk Prediction for African American Women: Consideration of Estrogen Receptor Subtype-Specific Risk FactorsR01CA228357 · NCI · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI PALMER, JULIE R · 2019 to 2023
$1.7M
NCI NIH HHS P01 CA087969NCI NIH HHS P30 CA071789NCI NIH HHS R01 CA228357NCI NIH HHS R01 CA242747NCI NIH HHS U01 CA164973NCI NIH HHS U01 CA164974NCI NIH HHS UM1 CA186107NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92021D00001NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92021D00002NIH HHS R01CA242747WHI NIH HHS 75N92021D00003WHI NIH HHS 75N92021D00004WHI NIH HHS 75N92021D00005
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTo support mammography screening decision making, we developed a competing-risk model to estimate 5-year breast cancer risk and 10-year nonbreast cancer death for women aged 55 years and older using Nurses' Health Study data and examined model performance in the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS). Here, we examine model performance in predicting 10-year outcomes in the BWHS, Women's Health Initiative-Extension Study (WHI-ES), and Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) and compare model performance to existing breast cancer prediction models.

methodsWe used competing-risk regression and Royston and Altman methods for validating survival models to calculate our model's calibration and discrimination (C index) in BWHS (n = 17 380), WHI-ES (n = 106 894), and MEC (n = 49 668). The Nurses' Health Study development cohort (n = 48 102) regression coefficients were applied to the validation cohorts. We compared our model's performance with breast cancer risk assessment tool (Gail) and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS) models by computing breast cancer risk estimates and C statistics.

resultsWhen predicting 10-year breast cancer risk, our model's C index was 0.569 in BWHS, 0.572 in WHI-ES, and 0.576 in MEC. The Gail model's C statistic was 0.554 in BWHS, 0.564 in WHI-ES, and 0.551 in MEC; IBIS's C statistic was 0.547 in BWHS, 0.552 in WHI-ES, and 0.562 in MEC. The Gail model underpredicted breast cancer risk in WHI-ES; IBIS underpredicted breast cancer risk in WHI-ES and in MEC but overpredicted breast cancer risk in BWHS. Our model calibrated well. Our model's C index for predicting 10-year nonbreast cancer death was 0.760 in WHI-ES and 0.763 in MEC.

conclusionsOur competing-risk model performs as well as existing breast cancer prediction models in diverse cohorts and predicts nonbreast cancer death. We are developing a website to disseminate our model.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsFemaleHumansMammographyRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsWomen's Health

Identifiers

PMID37676833
PMCPMC10777669
OpenAlexW4386503257

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.