ArticleNature communications2023
Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 54 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
54 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 69 citations in OpenAlex.
- HLA alleles and dengue susceptibility across populations in the era of climate change: a comprehensive review.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Pooled it
- Impacts of long-term climate change on human health: a global scoping review of quantitative research.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Barriers in operating proactive source reduction informed by an early warning system for dengue prevention: A qualitative study from end-user perspectives in Vietnam.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Predictive association between control measures and chikungunya fever incidence based on random forest and SHAP analysis.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Dengue Vaccines in a Changing Epidemiological Landscape: Current Evidence, Unresolved Challenges, and Public Health Considerations.Vaccines · 2026Review
- ENSO Impact on Global Chikungunya Virus Transmission, 2008-2024: A Multi-Country Distributed-Lag Time-Series Analysis.Viruses · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of intervention strategies on dengue dynamics in Shenzhen, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Public health informatics tools for dengue risk management: A systematic review.PLOS digital health · 2026Article
- Machine learning reveals temperature as a key predictor of dengue risk across Thailand's provinces: A 20-year analysis.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Sociodemographic and Structural Risk Factors for Dengue in a Rapidly Developing Indonesian District.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Projections of dengue epidemics attributable to climate change in Peru.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Urban flooding as a biohazard risk: A call to address environmental and health inequities in tropical cities.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- The Links Between Dengue Virus, Climate and Climate Change.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2026Review
- Projecting long-term excess risks of major infectious diseases associated with future extreme weather events in Thailand.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Projecting the impacts of climate and land-use change on avian influenza suitability in Bangladesh.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Epidemiology and severity risk factors of dengue virus infection during the 2023-2024 outbreak in Colombia.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- "Basically a PR exercise…": a qualitative study of expert perspectives on 'performative versus evidence-informed' dengue vector control in the Asia-Pacific region.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.