Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37666800›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Inherent spatiotemporal uncertainty of renewable power in China.

Jianxiao Wang, Liudong Chen, Zhenfei Tan, Ershun Du, Nian Liu, Jing Ma, Mingyang Sun, Canbing Li, Jie Song, Xi Lu and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Jianxiao Wang *National Engineering Laboratory for Big Data Analysis and Applications, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9871-5263
Liudong Chen *Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA.
Zhenfei TanKey Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion (Ministry of Education), Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0509-3790
Ershun DuLow-Carbon Energy Laboratory, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Nian LiuState Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China.
Jing MaState Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China.
Mingyang SunCollege of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Canbing LiKey Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion (Ministry of Education), Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China.
Jie SongNational Engineering Laboratory for Big Data Analysis and Applications, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Xi LuSchool of Environment and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China. xilu@tsinghua.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5063-3776
Chin-Woo TanDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, 94305, USA. tancw@stanford.edu.
Guannan HeNational Engineering Laboratory for Big Data Analysis and Applications, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China. gnhe@pku.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5055-076X

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 52277092National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 72271008
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Solar and wind resources are vital for the sustainable energy transition. Although renewable potentials have been widely assessed in existing literature, few studies have examined the statistical characteristics of the inherent renewable uncertainties arising from natural randomness, which is inevitable in stochastic-aware research and applications. Here we develop a rule-of-thumb statistical learning model for wind and solar power prediction and generate a year-long dataset of hourly prediction errors of 30 provinces in China. We reveal diversified spatiotemporal distribution patterns of prediction errors, indicating that over 60% of wind prediction errors and 50% of solar prediction errors arise from scenarios with high utilization rates. The first-order difference and peak ratio of generation series are two primary indicators explaining the uncertainty distribution. Additionally, we analyze the seasonal distributions of the provincial prediction errors that reveal a consistent law in China. Finally, policies including incentive improvements and interprovincial scheduling are suggested.

Identifiers

PMID37666800
PMCPMC10477199

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.