ArticleBMC infectious diseases2023
Seasonality of cholera in Kolkata and the influence of climate.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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13 citing papers in PubMed, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Climate change impact on disease emergence and antimicrobial resistance: A perspective on transmission and detection.iScience · 2026Review
- The pitfalls of incidence-based time series regression for inferring the effects of weather on infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Review
- Two decades of cholera in Dhaka, Bangladesh: Epidemiology, seasonal patterns, and environmental risk, insights from 2004-2024.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Repeated Extraneous Introductions of Cholera, Thailand, 2007-2025.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Modelling the impact of climate on cholera: a case study of Kolkata.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Article
- Meteorological determinants of hepatitis E dynamics in Jiangsu Province, China: a pre-COVID-19 era study focusing on multi-route transmission (2005-2018).Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Integrating Surveillance and Climate Data for Cholera Early Warning in Ethiopia.Annals of global health · 2025Article
- Machine learning and spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological factors on waterborne diseases in Bangladesh.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Identifying clustering of cholera cases using geospatial analysis in Kolkata and surrounding districts: data from patients at tertiary care referral hospitals.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- The changing relationship between Cholera and interannual climate variables in Kolkata over the past century.Gut pathogens · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCholera in Kolkata remains endemic and the Indian city is burdened with a high number of annual cases. Climate change is widely considered to exacerbate cholera, however the precise relationship between climate and cholera is highly heterogeneous in space and considerable variation can be observed even within the Indian subcontinent. To date, relatively few studies have been conducted regarding the influence of climate on cholera in Kolkata.
methodsWe considered 21 years of confirmed cholera cases from the Infectious Disease Hospital in Kolkata during the period of 1999-2019. We used Generalised Additive Modelling (GAM) to extract the non-linear relationship between cholera and different climatic factors; temperature, rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Peak associated lag times were identified using cross-correlation lag analysis.
resultsOur findings revealed a bi-annual pattern of cholera cases with two peaks coinciding with the increase in temperature in summer and the onset of monsoon rains. Variables selected as explanatory variables in the GAM model were temperature and rainfall. Temperature was the only significant factor associated with summer cholera (mean temperature of 30.3 °C associated with RR of 3.8) while rainfall was found to be the main driver of monsoon cholera (550 mm total monthly rainfall associated with RR of 3.38). Lag time analysis revealed that the association between temperature and cholera cases in the summer had a longer peak lag time compared to that between rainfall and cholera during the monsoon. We propose several mechanisms by which these relationships are mediated.
conclusionsKolkata exhibits a dual-peak phenomenon with independent mediating factors. We suggest that the summer peak is due to increased bacterial concentration in urban water bodies, while the monsoon peak is driven by contaminated flood waters. Our results underscore the potential utility of preventative strategies tailored to these seasonal and climatic patterns, including efforts to reduce direct contact with urban water bodies in summer and to protect residents from flood waters during monsoon.
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