Integrating deep learning, threading alignments, and a multi-MSA strategy for high-quality protein monomer and complex structure prediction in CASP15.

We report the results of the "UM-TBM" and "Zheng" groups in CASP15 for protein monomer and complex structure prediction. These prediction sets were obtained using the D-I-TASSER and DMFold-Multimer algorithms, respectively. For monomer structure prediction, D-I-TASSER introduced four new features during CASP15: (i) a multiple sequence alignment (MSA) generation protocol that combines multi-source MSA searching and a structural modeling-based MSA ranker; (ii) attention-network based spatial restraints; (iii) a multi-domain module containing domain partition and arrangement for domain-level templates and spatial restraints; (iv) an optimized I-TASSER-based folding simulation system for full-length model creation guided by a combination of deep learning restraints, threading alignments, and knowledge-based potentials. For 47 free modeling targets in CASP15, the final models predicted by D-I-TASSER showed average TM-score 19% higher than the standard AlphaFold2 program. We thus showed that traditional Monte Carlo-based folding simulations, when appropriately coupled with deep learning algorithms, can generate models with improved accuracy over end-to-end deep learning methods alone. For protein complex structure prediction, DMFold-Multimer generated models by integrating a new MSA generation algorithm (DeepMSA2) with the end-to-end modeling module from AlphaFold2-Multimer. For the 38 complex targets, DMFold-Multimer generated models with an average TM-score of 0.83 and Interface Contact Score of 0.60, both significantly higher than those of competing complex prediction tools. Our analyses on complexes highlighted the critical role played by MSA generating, ranking, and pairing in protein complex structure prediction. We also discuss future room for improvement in the areas of viral protein modeling and complex model ranking.