Trajectories of kidney function and risk of mortality.

backgroundWe aimed to identify patterns within the rate of kidney function decline, determinants of these patterns and their association with all-cause mortality risk in the general population.

methodsParticipants aged ≥ 45 years with at least one assessment of creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) taken between 1997 and 2018 were selected from a population-based cohort study. Analyses were performed using several distinct latent class trajectory modelling methods. Cumulative incidences were calculated with 45 years of age as the starting point.

resultsIn 12 062 participants (85 922 eGFR assessments, mean age 67.0 years, 58.7% women, median follow-up 9.6 years), four trajectories of eGFR change with age were identified: slow eGFR decline [rate of change in mL/min/1.73 m2 per year (RC), -0.9; 95% CI, -0.9 to -0.9; reference group], intermediate eGFR decline (RC, -2.5; 95% CI, -2.7 to -2.5) and fast eGFR decline (RC, -4.3; 95% CI, -4.4 to -4.1), and an increase/stable eGFR (RC, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.4). Women were more likely to have an increase/stable eGFR [odds ratio (OR), 1.94; 95% CI, 1.53 to 2.46] whereas men were more likely to have a fast eGFR decline (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.60). Participants with diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or hypertension were more likely to have an intermediate or fast eGFR decline. All-cause mortality risks (cumulative incidence at age of 70 years) were 32.3% (95% CI, 21.4 to 47.9, slow eGFR decline), 6.7% (95% CI, 3.5 to 12.4, intermediate eGFR decline), 68.8% (95% CI, 44.4 to 87.8, fast eGFR decline) and 9.5% (95% CI, 5.5 to 15.7, increase/stable eGFR).

conclusionSex, hypertension, diabetes and CVD were identified as trajectory membership determinants. Having fast eGFR decline was associated with the highest risk of all-cause mortality, highlighting the need for extensive monitoring and prevention of kidney function decline in individuals at risk of having fast eGFR decline.