ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2023
Medium-term scenarios of COVID-19 as a function of immune uncertainties and chronic disease.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiological impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions are modulated by immunity exposure trade offs.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Immune Priming and the Risk of COVID-19, Influenza, and Other Acute Respiratory Infections: Insights From an N3C Cohort.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Uncertainty in COVID-19 transmission could undermine our ability to predict long COVID.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- The evolution of post-infection mortality.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Impact of waning immunity against SARS-CoV-2 severity exacerbated by vaccine hesitancy.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Infection-Dependent Modulation in Vital Components of the Serum Profile of Severely SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients.Infection and drug resistance · 2024Article
- Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Medium-term scenarios of COVID-19 as a function of immune uncertainties and chronic disease.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
As the SARS-CoV-2 trajectory continues, the longer-term immuno-epidemiology of COVID-19, the dynamics of Long COVID, and the impact of escape variants are important outstanding questions. We examine these remaining uncertainties with a simple modelling framework that accounts for multiple (antigenic) exposures via infection or vaccination. If immunity (to infection or Long COVID) accumulates rapidly with the valency of exposure, we find that infection levels and the burden of Long COVID are markedly reduced in the medium term. More pessimistic assumptions on host adaptive immune responses illustrate that the longer-term burden of COVID-19 may be elevated for years to come. However, we also find that these outcomes could be mitigated by the eventual introduction of a vaccine eliciting robust (i.e. durable, transmission-blocking and/or 'evolution-proof') immunity. Overall, our work stresses the wide range of future scenarios that still remain, the importance of collecting real-world epidemiological data to identify likely outcomes, and the crucial need for the development of a highly effective transmission-blocking, durable and broadly protective vaccine.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.