Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37632350›Full record

ArticleJournal of Crohn's & colitis2024

Superior predictive value of transmural over endoscopic severity for colectomy risk in ulcerative colitis: a multicentre prospective cohort study.

Nicole Piazza O Sed, Daniele Noviello, Elisabetta Filippi, Francesco Conforti, Federica Furfaro, Mirella Fraquelli, Andrea Costantino, Silvio Danese, Maurizio Vecchi, Gionata Fiorino and 2 more

Open access · hybridAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of Crohn's & colitis, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
10.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. The Emerging Role of Ultrasonography in Ulcerative Colitis.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Nicole Piazza O SedGastroenterology and Endoscopy Unit, Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.
Daniele NovielloGastroenterology and Endoscopy Unit, Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.
Elisabetta FilippiDepartment of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
Francesco ConfortiGastroenterology and Endoscopy Unit, Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.
Federica FurfaroGastroenterology and Endoscopy, IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele Milano, Milan, Italy.
Mirella FraquelliGastroenterology and Endoscopy Unit, Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.
Andrea CostantinoGastroenterology and Endoscopy Unit, Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.
Silvio DaneseGastroenterology and Endoscopy, IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele Milano, Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-7341-1351
Maurizio VecchiGastroenterology and Endoscopy Unit, Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-1558-8604
Gionata FiorinoUniversity Vita-Salute San Raffaele Milano, Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-5623-2968
Mariangela AlloccaGastroenterology and Endoscopy, IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele Milano, Milan, Italy.
Flavio CaprioliGastroenterology and Endoscopy Unit, Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-8077-8175
University of Milan · ITFondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico · ITIRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele · ITVita-Salute San Raffaele University · IT

Funding

Italy's Ministry of Health
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsEndoscopic activity is associated with an increased risk of surgery in patients with ulcerative colitis [UC]. Transmural activity, as defined by Milan Ultrasound Criteria [MUC] > 6.2, reliably detects endoscopic activity in patients with UC. The present study aimed to assess in UC patients whether transmural severity is a better predictor of colectomy as compared to endoscopy.

methodsConsecutive adult UC patients were recruited in two IBD Referral Centres and underwent colonoscopy and intestinal ultrasound in a blinded fashion. The need for colectomy was assessed at follow-up. Univariable and multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed. Receiver operating characteristic [ROC] analysis was used to compare MUC baseline values and Mayo Endoscopic Scores [MES] in predicting colectomy risk.

resultsOverall, 141 patients were enrolled, and 13 underwent colectomy in the follow-up period. Both MES (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-8.37, p = 0.02) and MUC [HR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.19-1.76, p < 0.001] were associated with colectomy risk, but only MUC was independently associated with this event on multivariable analysis [HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.06-2.02, p = 0.02]. MUC was the only independent variable associated with colectomy risk in patients with clinically active disease (odds ratio [OR]: 1.53 [1.03-2.27], p = 0.03). MUC demonstrated higher accuracy than MES (area under ROC curve [AUROC] 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75-0.92 vs 0.71, 95% CI: 0.62-0.80) and better performance for predicting colectomy [p = 0.02]. The optimal MUC score cut-off value for predicting colectomy, as assessed by the Youden index, was 7.7.

conclusionsA superior predictive value was found for transmural vs endoscopic severity for colectomy risk in UC patients.

Indexed as

Colitis, UlcerativeAdultColectomyColonoscopyHumansIntestinal MucosaProspective StudiesROC CurveSeverity of Illness IndexColectomyMilan Ultrasound Criteriamucosal healingprognosistransmural healingulcerative colitis

Identifiers

PMID37632350
PMCPMC10896635
OpenAlexW4386195817

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.