Correlates of estimated lifetime cruciate ligament survival inform potential rupture risk reduction strategies: findings from the Exceptional Aging in Rottweilers Study.

Cranial cruciate ligament (CCL) rupture is one of the most commonly diagnosed orthopedic conditions of pet dogs, making estimated lifetime cruciate ligament survival an attractive endpoint for studies attempting to define clinical and genetic correlates of rupture risk reduction. Early life experiences contribute significantly to the origins of adult health outcomes, yet our current understanding of modifiable susceptibility factors that drive the high frequency of CCL rupture remains limited. We reasoned that combining lifetime medical history with standardized late-life assessment of lifetime cruciate ligament survival and detailed phenotyping of each dog for selected risk variables would provide a sensitive approach to identify factors that would differentiate between lifelong avoidance versus susceptibility to ligament rupture. Here, we report results of Kaplan-Meier analysis of estimated lifetime cruciate ligament survival and Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess risk variables in a lifetime cohort study of 123 purebred Rottweilers, a breed at high risk for veterinarian-diagnosed CCL rupture. We show that gonad removal during the 24-month developmental period is adversely associated with three measures of susceptibility-increased incidence of CCL rupture, multiplicity (bilateral rupture), and accelerated time to initial CCL failure. Our analysis reveals two other phenotypes-short adult height and the production of offspring (in females)-are associated with significant CCL rupture risk reduction. Together, the results provide clues to an early endocrine influence on lifetime cruciate ligament survival. Further, we identify two distinct clinical syndromes of CCL failure, providing a disease subtyping framework to advance future progress in genetic epidemiology, pathogenesis, and prediction. By conducting an evaluation of estimated lifetime CCL survival in dogs, we show that cruciate ligament survival may be jeopardized by gonad removal during the developmental period. Avoidance of such early environmental adversity may represent an actionable method for the control of canine CCL disease in certain breeds.