ArticleNature communications2023
Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 62 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
62 citing papers in PubMed.
- Associations between Legionellosis and meteorological variables in Ohio, 2001-2023.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Can Electric Vehicles Reduce Summertime Air Pollution Exposure Inequalities in Metro Atlanta? A High-Resolution Analysis.GeoHealth · 2026Article
- Epidemiologically validated spatial modelling reveals fine-scale heat health risks.Environmental science and ecotechnology · 2026Article
- Article
- Characterizing Heat Health Outcomes and Informing Public Health Interventions with Medical Claims Data in California.Environmental science & technology · 2026Article
- Quantifying the financial burden of heat-related hospital admissions in Switzerland under a changing climate: A scalable analytical framework.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Exploring age and gender sensitivity to high-temperature days: impacts on respiratory, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality in summer in Flanders.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring for submission to Nature Communications.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Cerebrovascular regulation during heat stress.Experimental physiology · 2026Review
- Global dataset on heat wave exposure due to the urban heat island effect.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Heat waves and annual mortality among older adults (aged ≥65 years) in the USA.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2026Article
- The True Cost of Heat: Evaluating Heat-Related Mortality Estimation Methods in Texas.GeoHealth · 2026Article
- Interventional applications of a Stroke Heat Risk Prediction Model produce health benefits.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Harvesting Effect and Extreme Temperature-Related Mortality in Italy.European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie · 2026Article
- Case study of low-cost energy reductions in shared research laboratories at a U.S. public university.Frontiers in sustainability · 2026Article
- Forecasting tool of hospital demand during heat periods: a time-series regression study in Bern, Switzerland.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Impacts of urban adaptation on reducing temperatures and heat-related deaths in Belgium.Environment international · 2026Article
- Climate-related health risks and payer-specific health expenditure growth: empirical evidence from government, social, and out-of-pocket health expenditure in China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Mitigating urban‒rural disparities in humid-heat risks in China.Nature communications · 2025Article
2 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
19 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.