Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37612105›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2023

Predicting risk of suicidal behaviour after initiation of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in children, adolescents and young adults: protocol for development and validation of clinical prediction models.

Tyra Lagerberg, Suvi Virtanen, Ralf Kuja-Halkola, Clara Hellner, Paul Lichtenstein, Seena Fazel, Zheng Chang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Tyra LagerbergDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden tyra.lagerberg@ki.se.ORCID 0000-0003-2480-0216
Suvi VirtanenDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ralf Kuja-HalkolaDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Clara HellnerDepartment of Clinical Neuroscience, Centre for Psychiatry Research, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Paul LichtensteinDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Seena FazelDepartment of Psychiatry, Warneford Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Zheng ChangDepartment of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Funding

Department of Health
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThere is concern regarding suicidal behaviour risk during selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) treatment among the young. A clinically useful model for predicting suicidal behaviour risk should have high predictive performance in terms of discrimination and calibration; transparency and ease of implementation are desirable. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Using Swedish national registers, we will identify individuals initiating an SSRI aged 8-24 years 2007-2020. We will develop: (A) a model based on a broad set of predictors, and (B) a model based on a restricted set of predictors. For the broad predictor model, we will consider an ensemble of four base models: XGBoost (XG), neural net (NN), elastic net logistic regression (EN) and support vector machine (SVM). The predictors with the greatest contribution to predictive performance in the base models will be determined. For the restricted predictor model, clinical input will be used to select predictors based on the top predictors in the broad model, and inputted in each of the XG, NN, EN and SVM models. If any show superiority in predictive performance as defined by the area under the receiver-operator curve, this model will be selected as the final model; otherwise, the EN model will be selected. The training and testing samples will consist of data from 2007 to 2017 and from 2018 to 2020, respectively. We will additionally assess the final model performance in individuals receiving a depression diagnosis within 90 days before SSRI initiation.The aims are to (A) develop a model predicting suicidal behaviour risk after SSRI initiation among children and youths, using machine learning methods, and (B) develop a model with a restricted set of predictors, favouring transparency and scalability. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The research is approved by the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (2020-06540). We will disseminate findings by publishing in peer-reviewed open-access journals, and presenting at international conferences.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalSelective Serotonin Reuptake InhibitorsAdolescentCalibrationChildHumansPrognosisSuicidal IdeationYoung AdultSelective Serotonin Reuptake InhibitorsChild & adolescent psychiatryMENTAL HEALTHREGISTRIESRisk FactorsSuicide & self-harm

Identifiers

PMID37612105
PMCPMC10450049

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.