ArticleScience advances2023
Sharp decline in future productivity of tropical reforestation above 29°C mean annual temperature.
Article in Science advances, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Increasingly severe thermal stresses on global photosynthesis using insights from observations of canopy temperature.National science review · 2026Article
- Article
- Long-term climate warming weakens positive plant biomass responses globally.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Increasing severity of large-scale fires prolongs recovery time of forests globally since 2001.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Scenario analysis of supply- and demand-side solutions for circular economy and climate change mitigation in the global building sector.Journal of industrial ecology · 2024Article
- Assessing multi-decadal climatic variability and its impact on cardamom cultivation in the Indian Cardamom Hills.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Biocultural diversity and crop improvement.Emerging topics in life sciences · 2023Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Tropical reforestation is among the most powerful tools for carbon sequestration. Yet, climate change impacts on productivity are often not accounted for when estimating its mitigation potential. Using the process-based forest growth model 3-PGmix, we analyzed future productivity of tropical reforestation in Central America. Around 29°C mean annual temperature, productivity sharply and consistently declined (-11% per 1°C of warming) across all tropical lowland climate zones and five tree species spanning a wide range of ecological characteristics. Under a high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), productivity of dry tropical reforestation nearly halved and tropical moist and rain forest sites showed moderate losses around 10% by the end of the century. Under SSP2-4.5, tropical moist and rain forest sites were resilient and tropical dry forest sites showed moderate losses (-17%). Increased vapor pressure deficit, caused by increasing temperatures, was the main driver of growth decline. Thus, to continue following high-emission pathways could reduce the effectiveness of reforestation as climate action tool.
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Registered trials
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