ArticlePloS one2023
Risk of incident cardiovascular diseases at national and subnational levels in Iran from 2000 to 2016 and projection through 2030: Insights from Iran STEPS surveys.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Events and Predictors in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study: A 20-Year Cohort Review .International journal of endocrinology and metabolism · 2026Review
- Epidemiology and cardiometabolic care in adults with ASCVD and high 10-year ASCVD risk: 2021 WHO STEPS study in Iran.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Facilitators and barriers to acceptance of coronary artery bypass graft surgery: a qualitative study.Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2025Article
- Comparison of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in metropolitan and rural areas of South of Iran.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Mortality Rate and Years of Life Lost Due to Ischemic Heart Disease in Southern Iran between 2004 and 2019: A Population-Based Study.Archives of Iranian medicine · 2024Article
- Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease and Its Attributable Risk Factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990 to 2019: Results From the GBD Study 2019.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
13 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundCardiovascular Disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in developing countries. CVD risk stratification guides the health policy to make evidence-based decisions.
aimTo provide current picture and future trend of CVD risk in the adult Iranian population.
methodsNationally representative datasets of 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2016 STEPwise approach to non-communicable diseases risk factor surveillance (STEPS) studies were used to generate the 10-year and 30-year risks of CVD based on Framingham, Globorisk, and World Health Organization (WHO) risk estimation models. Trend of CVD risk was calculated from 2000 until 2016 and projected to 2030.
resultsIn 2016, based on Framingham model, 14.0% of the Iranian, aged 30 to 74, were at great risk (≥20%) of CVD in the next 10 years (8.0% among females, 20.7% among males). Among those aged 25 to 59, 12.7% had ≥45% risk of CVD in the coming 30 years (9.2% among females, 16.6 among males). In 2016, CVD risk was higher among urban area inhabitants. Age-standardized Framingham 10-year CVD risk will increase 32.2% and 19%, from 2000 to 2030, in females and males, respectively. Eastern provinces had the lowest and northern provinces had the greatest risk.
conclusionsThis study projected that CVD risk has increased from 2000 to 2016 in Iran. Without further risk factor modification, this trend will continue until 2030. We have identified populations at higher risks of CVD to guide future intervention.
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