ReviewNature communications2023
Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting.
Review in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predicting regional gray swans via translocation: AI weather models and Dubai's unprecedented 2024 rainfall.Science advances · 2026Article
- Recent globally synchronous seasonal warm events unprecedented since 850 CE.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Extreme-range precipitation probability across global weather systems.Science advances · 2026Article
- Physics-based models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes.Science advances · 2026Article
- Comparing 600 years of extremely hot Central European summers to future projections.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring for submission to Nature Communications.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Global record-shattering breadbasket droughts emerge from moderately extreme regional events.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Impact attribution of the March 2022 Antarctic heatwave reveals amplification by cloud feedbacks and increased future meltwater.Communications earth & environment · 2026Article
- Major fires in Indonesian Borneo are possible under all ENSO phases.npj natural hazards · 2026Article
- Lethal Heat and Humidity Events.Annual review of environment and resources · 2025Article
- Climate research in the Global South.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Dynamical-generative downscaling of climate model ensembles.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather.Nature communications · 2025Review
- DeepExtremeCubes: Earth system spatio-temporal data for assessing compound heatwave and drought impacts.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Review
- Machine learning-based extreme event attribution.Science advances · 2024Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could the possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave have been foreseen, based on climate model information available before the event? Could the scientific community have quantified its potential intensity based on the current generation of climate models? Here, we demonstrate how an ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines of a heatwave hotter than observed in the Pacific Northwest. We also show that heatwaves of much greater intensities than ever observed are possible in other locations like the Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order to establish confidence in storylines of 'black swan'-type events, different lines of evidence need to be combined along with process understanding to make this information robust and actionable for stakeholders.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.