Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37607913›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change.

Liam Lachs, Simon D Donner, Peter J Mumby, John C Bythell, Adriana Humanes, Holly K East, James R Guest

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Unraveling the Fungal Community Dynamics in Heat-Tolerant CoralJournal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Liam LachsSchool of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. liamlachs@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3712-6144
Simon D DonnerInstitute of Resources, Environment and Sustainability, and Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0600-7388
Peter J MumbyMarine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6297-9053
John C BythellSchool of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2416-9786
Adriana HumanesSchool of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7962-2635
Holly K EastDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0392-639X
James R GuestSchool of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.

Indexed as

AnthozoaAcclimatizationAnimalsCarbonClimate ChangeCoral ReefsHypochlorous AcidSodium CompoundsCarbonHypochlorous AcidSodium Compounds

Identifiers

PMID37607913
PMCPMC10444816

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.