Primary Care Continuity, Frequency, and Regularity Associated With Medicare Savings.

Importance: Reducing Medicare expenditures is a key objective of Medicare's transition to value-based reimbursement models. Improving access to primary care is an important way to reduce expenditures, yet less is known about how visits should be organized to maximize savings. Objective: To examine the association between Medicare savings and primary care visit patterns. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from a 5% sample of traditional Medicare claims from 2016 to 2019. Participants had at least 3 primary care visits with at least 180 days between the first and the last visit, were not enrolled in Medicare Advantage, did not have end-stage kidney disease, and were not institutionalized. Data were analyzed from June 2022 to April 2023. Exposures: Primary care visit patterns: visit frequency, regularity, continuity of care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Savings in Medicare expenditures; risk-adjusted Medicare expenditures, number of emergency department (ED) visits, and hospitalizations. Results: Among 504 471 beneficiaries (298 422 [59.16%] women; mean [SD] age, 74.26 [10.41] years), temporally regular visits with higher continuity were associated with the highest savings. For these patients, the savings increased with increasing visit frequencies, with peak savings observed at higher visit frequencies as clinical complexity increased. As regularity and continuity decreased, the association between savings and visit frequencies progressively inverted. The group with a regular and highly continuous pattern was associated with greater savings (175.87%; 95% CI, 167.40% to 184.33%; P < .001), lower risk-adjusted expenditures (-16.61%; 95% CI, -16.73% to -16.48%; P < .001), fewer risk-adjusted ED visits (-40.49%; 95% CI, -40.55% to -40.43%; P < .001), and fewer risk-adjusted hospitalizations (-53.32%; 95% CI, -53.49% to -53.14%; P < .001) compared with the irregular noncontinuous group. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, savings in Medicare expenditures and improvements in acute care utilization were associated with visit frequency, regularity, and continuity in primary care in an interrelated fashion such that optimization of primary care visit patterns along each axis were associated with the largest improvement in outcomes. Demonstrating the magnitude and interdependence of these associations is useful for health care professionals and policymakers as Medicare continues its transition to value-based reimbursement models.