ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2023
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated changes in COVID-19 severity and fatality.
Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- The impact of school-based mitigation measures on the transmission of respiratory pathogens: the case of SARS-CoV-2.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Implications for distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance from Italian post-pandemic social contact data.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Serum per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) concentrations and anti-spike SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels following COVID-19 vaccination: A cross-sectional study in three communities with elevated PFAS exposure.International journal of hygiene and environmental health · 2026Article
- Mobility-driven synthetic contact matrices as a scalable solution for real-time pandemic response modeling.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Integrated Genomic and Epidemiological Surveillance to Monitor SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Italy: Insights From the JN.1 Case Study (2023-2024).Journal of medical virology · 2026Article
- Outpatient Testing for HIV in Italy, 2018-2023-Preliminary Data.Microorganisms · 2025Article
- Overview of adult immunization in Italy: Successes, lessons learned and the way forward.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Review
- Confounding amplifies the effect of environmental factors on COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Exposure to obinutuzumab does not affect outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in vaccinated patients with newly diagnosed advanced-stage follicular lymphoma.British journal of haematology · 2024Article
- Incidence and Predictors of Healthcare-Associated Infections in Patients Admitted to a Temporary Intensive Care Unit during the COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: A Two-Year (2021-2023) Retrospective Cohort Study in Rome, Italy.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Towards the outbreak tail, what is the public opinion about wastewater surveillance in the United States?Journal of water and health · 2024Article
- Complexity and Diversity of the Neurological Spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 over Three Waves of COVID-19.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Risk of breakthrough infection and hospitalisation after COVID-19 primary vaccination by HIV status in four Italian regions during 2021.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Examining potential Long COVID effects through utilization of healthcare resources: a retrospective, population-based, matched cohort study comparing individuals with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.European journal of public health · 2024Article
- Decoding the historical tale: COVID-19 impact on haematological malignancy patients-EPICOVIDEHA insights from 2020 to 2022.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- The impact of underreported infections on vaccine effectiveness estimates derived from retrospective cohort studies.International journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Relative effectiveness of bivalent Original/Omicron BA.4-5 mRNA vaccine in preventing severe COVID-19 in persons 60 years and above during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB.1.5 and other XBB sublineages circulation, Italy, April to June 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Article
- Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated changes in COVID-19 severity and fatality.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
23 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The difficulty in identifying SARS-CoV-2 infections has not only been the major obstacle to control the COVID-19 pandemic but also to quantify changes in the proportion of infections resulting in hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or death. Methods: We developed a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination informed by official estimates of the time-varying reproduction number to estimate infections that occurred in Italy between February 2020 and 2022. Model outcomes were compared with the Italian National surveillance data to estimate changes in the SARS-CoV-2 infection ascertainment ratio (IAR), infection hospitalization ratio (IHR), infection ICU ratio (IIR), and infection fatality ratio (IFR) in five different sub-periods associated with the dominance of the ancestral lineages and Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1 variants. Results: We estimate that, over the first 2 years of pandemic, the IAR ranged between 15% and 40% (range of 95%CI: 11%-61%), with a peak value in the second half of 2020. The IHR, IIR, and IFR consistently decreased throughout the pandemic with 22-44-fold reductions between the initial phase and the Omicron period. At the end of the study period, we estimate an IHR of 0.24% (95%CI: 0.17-0.36), IIR of 0.015% (95%CI: 0.011-0.023), and IFR of 0.05% (95%CI: 0.04-0.08). Conclusions: Since 2021, changes in the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, vaccination rollout, and the shift of infection to younger ages have reduced SARS-CoV-2 infection ascertainment. The same factors, combined with the improvement of patient management and care, contributed to a massive reduction in the severity and fatality of COVID-19.
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