ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2023
From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Impact of Environmental and Housing Factors on the Distribution of Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) in an Endemic Area of Chagas Disease in Puebla, Mexico.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- The epidemiology of Chagas disease in the Americas.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Review
- Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Introduction to the special issue: challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021-2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000-648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8-1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900-3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.