ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2024
Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 15 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Preparedness and response to the international poliovirus and diphtheria reintroduction alert: public health interventions and strategy review in the Veneto Region, Italy.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Characterization of environmental and clinical surveillance inputs to support prospective integrated modeling of the polio endgame.PLOS global public health · 2025Review
- Wastewater-based surveillance as a tool for public health action: SARS-CoV-2 and beyond.Clinical microbiology reviews · 2024Review
- Non-detection of emerging and re-emerging pathogens in wastewater surveillance to confirm absence of transmission risk: A case study of polio in New York.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.Expert review of vaccinesArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn July 2022, New York State (NYS) reported a case of paralytic polio in an unvaccinated young adult, and subsequent wastewater surveillance confirmed sustained local transmission of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) in NYS with genetic linkage to the paralyzed patient.
methodsWe adapted an established poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus vaccine evolution model to characterize dynamics of poliovirus transmission in NYS, including consideration of the immunization activities performed as part of the declared state of emergency.
resultsDespite sustained transmission of imported VDPV2 in NYS involving potentially thousands of individuals (depending on seasonality, population structure, and mixing assumptions) in 2022, the expected number of additional paralytic cases in years 2023 and beyond is small (less than 0.5). However, continued transmission and/or reintroduction of poliovirus into NYS and other populations remains a possible risk in communities that do not achieve and maintain high immunization coverage.
conclusionsIn countries such as the United States that use only inactivated poliovirus vaccine, even with high average immunization coverage, imported polioviruses may circulate and pose a small but nonzero risk of causing paralysis in nonimmune individuals.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.