Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37593075›Full record

ArticleCerebral circulation - cognition and behavior2023

Predicting incident dementia in cerebral small vessel disease: comparison of machine learning and traditional statistical models.

Rui Li, Eric L Harshfield, Steven Bell, Michael Burkhart, Anil M Tuladhar, Saima Hilal, Daniel J Tozer, Francesca M Chappell, Stephen D J Makin, Jessica W Lo and 5 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cerebral circulation - cognition and behavior, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.8field-weighted citation impact, top 16% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 8 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Prediction of recurrence and functional status in young ischemic stroke patients: Comparison of machine learning and traditional statistical methods.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 7 institutions in 5 countries.

Rui LiStroke Research Group, Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Eric L HarshfieldStroke Research Group, Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Steven BellStroke Research Group, Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Michael BurkhartAdaptive Brain Lab, Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Anil M TuladharDepartment of Neurology, Donders Centre for Medical Neuroscience, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
Saima HilalMemory Aging and Cognition Centre, Department of Pharmacology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Daniel J TozerStroke Research Group, Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Francesca M ChappellCentre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Stephen D J MakinCentre for Rural Health, Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Jessica W LoCentre for Healthy Brain Ageing, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Joanna M WardlawCentre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Frank-Erik de LeeuwDepartment of Neurology, Donders Centre for Medical Neuroscience, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
Christopher ChenMemory Aging and Cognition Centre, Department of Pharmacology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Zoe KourtziAdaptive Brain Lab, Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Hugh S MarkusStroke Research Group, Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
University of Cambridge · GBNational University of Singapore · SGRadboud University Nijmegen · NLUniversity of Edinburgh · GBBreast Cancer Research Foundation · USUniversity of Aberdeen · GBUNSW Sydney · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) contributes to 45% of dementia cases worldwide, yet we lack a reliable model for predicting dementia in SVD. Past attempts largely relied on traditional statistical approaches. Here, we investigated whether machine learning (ML) methods improved prediction of incident dementia in SVD from baseline SVD-related features over traditional statistical methods. Methods: We included three cohorts with varying SVD severity (RUN DMC, Results: We included 789 participants without missing data in the survival analysis, amongst whom 108 (13.7%) developed dementia during a median follow-up of 5.4 years. Excluding those censored before three years, we included 750 participants in the classification analysis, amongst whom 48 (6.4%) developed dementia by year 3. Comparing statistical and ML models, only regularised Cox/logistic regression outperformed their statistical counterparts overall, but not significantly so in survival analysis. Baseline cognition was highly predictive, and global cognition was the most important feature. Conclusions: When using baseline SVD-related features to predict dementia in SVD, the ML survival or classification models we evaluated brought little improvement over traditional statistical approaches. The benefits of ML should be evaluated with caution, especially given limited sample size and features.

Indexed as

Cerebral small vessel diseaseDementiaMachine learningPrediction

Identifiers

PMID37593075
PMCPMC10428032
OpenAlexW4385694216

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.