When does family size matter? Sibship size, socioeconomic status and education in England.

There is still no clear understanding of the relationship between sibship size and child outcomes. Research from across disciplines, and across settings, reports conflicting results suggesting that the relationship is complex and ecologically dependent. Evolutionary models predict that parents will make reproductive decisions based on their ability to invest in each child, but that this is not necessarily equal across children. Here we use data from the Next Steps study linked to National Pupil Database to examine the relationship between sibship size and Key Stage 4 (GCSE) maths and English grades in England for children born in 1989/1990. We were interested to further examine if and how associations might differ at the ends of the socioeconomic spectrum and we also tested if direct measures of parental investment could mitigate any negative impact of larger families. Multilevel ordinary least squares regression models with a random effect for school show that sibship sizes are associated with school grades, as is socioeconomic status. Moreover, the association between sibship size and grades holds true across the socioeconomic spectrum. Birth order was only weakly associated with school results, and only significant in some models. Parental investment is important, however, and might offset the some of the negative impact of larger families, for both maths and English attainment.