Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37587926›Full record

ArticleEvolutionary human sciences2023

Social divisions and risk perception drive divergent epidemics and large later waves.

Mallory J Harris, Kimberly J Cardenas, Erin A Mordecai

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Evolutionary human sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 27% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Partisan differences in health behaviors can impact respiratory disease dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Mallory J HarrisBiology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94301, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8196-0430
Kimberly J CardenasBiology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94301, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5760-3054
Erin A MordecaiBiology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94301, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4402-5547
Stanford University · US

Funding

The child health impacts of overlapping vector-borne diseases in KenyaR01AI102918 · NIAID · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Angelle Desiree LaBeaud · 2013 to 2026
$7.7M
Leveraging environmental drivers to predict vector-borne disease transmissionR35GM133439 · NIGMS · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Erin Mordecai · 2019 to 2026
$3.2M
Modeling the influence of temperature on the evolution of vector-virus interactionsR01AI168097 · NIAID · WADSWORTH CENTER · PI Alexander Timothy Ciota · 2022 to 2026
$2.4M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI102918NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI168097NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM133439
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

During infectious disease outbreaks, individuals may adopt protective measures like vaccination and physical distancing in response to awareness of disease burden. Prior work showed how feedbacks between epidemic intensity and awareness-based behaviour shape disease dynamics. These models often overlook social divisions, where population subgroups may be disproportionately impacted by a disease and more responsive to the effects of disease within their group. We develop a compartmental model of disease transmission and awareness-based protective behaviour in a population split into two groups to explore the impacts of awareness separation (relatively greater in- vs. out-group awareness of epidemic severity) and mixing separation (relatively greater in- vs. out-group contact rates). Using simulations, we show that groups that are more separated in awareness have smaller differences in mortality. Fatigue (i.e. abandonment of protective measures over time) can drive additional infection waves that can even exceed the size of the initial wave, particularly if uniform awareness drives early protection in one group, leaving that group largely susceptible to future infection. Counterintuitively, vaccine or infection-acquired immunity that is more protective against transmission and mortality may indirectly lead to more infections by reducing perceived risk of infection and therefore vaccine uptake. Awareness-based protective behaviour, including awareness separation, can fundamentally alter disease dynamics.

Indexed as

awarenesscompartmental modelinfectious diseaserisk perceptionsocial division

Identifiers

PMID37587926
PMCPMC10426078
OpenAlexW4321598908

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.