ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
The COVID-19 baby bump in the United States.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 35 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Vasectomy in the absence of paternity A pre- and post-pandemic Canadian cohort analysis.Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada · 2026Article
- Temporal Trends in Pregnancy Rate, Live Birth Rates, and Rates of Gestational Outcomes, 2012-2023.O&G open · 2026Article
- Stillbirths in Colombia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: analysis by geographic location and health insurance.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Parental socioeconomic composition of birth cohorts changed during the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Partisan Divergence in Fertility Change Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Florida.Population research and policy review · 2025Article
- Hard Hit: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on childbearing in the Hispanic/Latino population.SSM - population health · 2025Article
- All in the Family: Pets and Family Structure.Populations · 2025Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on Prenatal Diagnosis and Surgical Outcomes of Congenital Heart Disease: Fetal Heart Society and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Collaborative Study.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2025Article
- Explaining the sharp decline in birth rates in Canada and the United States in 2020.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- The Long-Run Effects of California's Paid Family Leave Act on Women's Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax DataAmerican economic journal. Economic policy · 2025Article
- Maternal deaths before and during COVID-19 pandemic: Causes and avoidable factors in a tertiary hospital in South Africa, 2018‒2022.PloS one · 2025Article
- Article
- Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Baby Bump or Baby Slump? COVID-19, Lockdowns, and their Effects on Births in Australia.SSM - population health · 2024Article
- Birth rate decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty.Human reproduction open · 2024Article
- Reply: Birth rate decline, COVID-19 pandemic, and vaccination programmes.Human reproduction open · 2024Article
- The COVID-19 baby bump in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
We use natality microdata covering the universe of US. births for 2015 to 2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in US fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all US births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall "baby bump" among US-born mothers, which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to US-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a prepandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that US births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women aged 30 to 34 and women with a college education. The 2021 to 2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.