ArticlePloS one2023
Two complementary approaches to estimate an excess of mortality: The case of Switzerland 2022.
Article in PloS one, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Productivity Losses due to Health Problems Arising from COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review of Population-Level Studies Worldwide.Applied health economics and health policy · 2025Pooled it
- Excess life-years and productive life-years lost in Poland through the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic years.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Excess and reduced work absence during COVID-19 in Poland: insights from cause-specific time-series models.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Beyond death counts: how COVID-19 affected excess mortality and productive life-years lost across 28 European states, 2020-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Years of Life Lost to COVID-19 and Related Mortality Indicators: An Illustration in 30 Countries.Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift · 2024Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality has generally been estimated comparing overall mortality in a given year with either past mortality levels or past mortality trends, with different results. Our objective was to illustrate and compare the two approaches using mortality data for Switzerland in 2022, the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic.
methodsUsing data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, standardized mortality rates and life expectancies in 2022 were compared with those of the last pre-pandemic year 2019 (first approach), as well as with those that would be expected if the pre-pandemic downward trend in mortality had continued during the pandemic (second approach). The pre-pandemic trend was estimated via a Poisson log-linear model on age-specific mortality over the period 2010-19.
resultsUsing the first approach, we estimated in Switzerland in 2022 an excess mortality of 2.6% (95%CI: 1.0%-4.1%) for men and 2.5% (95%CI: 1.0%-4.0%) for women, while the excess mortality rose to 8.4% (95%CI: 6.9%-9.9%) for men and 6.0% (95%CI: 4.6%-7.5%) for women using the second approach. Age classes over 80 were the main responsible for the excess mortality in 2022 for both sexes using the first approach, although a significant excess mortality was also found in most age classes above 30 using the second approach. Life expectancy in 2022 has been reduced by 2.7 months for men and 2.4 months for women according to the first approach, whereas it was reduced by respectively 8.8 and 6.0 months according to the second approach.
conclusionsThe excess mortality and loss of life expectancy in Switzerland in 2022 are around three times greater if the pre-pandemic trend is taken into account than if we simply compare 2022 with 2019. These two different approaches, one being more speculative and the other more factual, can also be applied simultaneously and provide complementary results. In Switzerland, such a dual-approach strategy has shown that the pre-pandemic downward trend in mortality is currently halted, while pre-pandemic mortality levels have largely been recovered by 2022.
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