ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2023
Phylogenies increase power to detect highly transmissible viral genome variants.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
As demonstrated by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the emergence of novel viral strains with increased transmission rates poses a significant threat to global health. Viral genome sequences, combined with statistical models of sequence evolution, may provide a critical tool for early detection of these strains. Using a novel statistical model that links transmission rates to the entire viral genome sequence, we study the power of phylogenetic methods-using a phylogenetic tree relating viral samples-and count-based methods-using case-counts of variants over time-to detect increased transmission rates, and to identify causative mutations. We find that phylogenies in particular can detect novel variants very soon after their origin, and may facilitate the development of early detection systems for outbreak surveillance.
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Registered trials
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