ArticleThe lancet. Healthy longevity2023
Impact of hypertension prevalence trend on mortality and burdens of dementia and disability in England and Wales to 2060: a simulation modelling study.
Article in The lancet. Healthy longevity, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The impact of hypertension prevention and modification on dementia burden: A systematic review of economic studies.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2025Pooled it
- Dual trajectories of intrinsic capacity and frailty: a joint predictor framework for dementia risk in middle-aged and older adults.BMC public health · 2026Article
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- High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I and risk of dementia: the 25-year longitudinal Whitehall II study.European heart journal · 2026Article
- Association of intrinsic capacity and neighborhood environment with dementia risk: an interaction and mediation analysis.Innovation in aging · 2026Article
- National trends in the unmet healthcare needs among patients with hypertension or type 2 diabetes mellitus in Korea from 2009 to 2023.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Projected Prevalence and Economic Burden of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias in China: Regional Disparities and Policy Implications.Health data science · 2025Article
- The potential impact of optimal blood pressure treatment intensity to reduce disparities in dementia between Black and White individuals.Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · 2025Observational
- Association between plant-based dietary patterns and dementia among Chinese older adults.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- Association of the weight-adjusted waist index with hypertension in the context of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine.The EPMA journal · 2024Article
- Projection for dementia burden in China to 2050: a macro-simulation study by scenarios of dementia incidence trends.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Temporal trends in population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a time-series study of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2004-2019).BMC medicine · 2024Article
- Geographical variation in dementia prevalence across China: a geospatial analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- The need for a more holistic approach to dementia prevention.The lancet. Healthy longevity · 2024Article
- CiGNN: A Causality-Informed and Graph Neural Network Based Framework for Cuffless Continuous Blood Pressure Estimation.IEEE journal of biomedical and health informatics · 2024Article
- The role of algae, fungi, and insect-derived proteins and bioactive peptides in preventive and clinical nutrition.Frontiers in nutrition · 2024Review
- Dementia incidence trend in England and Wales, 2002-19, and projection for dementia burden to 2040: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.The Lancet. Public health · 2023Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundPrevious estimates of the impact of public health interventions targeting hypertension usually focus on one health outcome. This study aims to consider the effects of change in future hypertension prevalence on mortality, dementia, and disability simultaneously.
methodsWe modelled three plausible scenarios based on observed trends of hypertension prevalence from 2003 to 2017 in England: observed trends continue (baseline scenario); 2017 prevalence remains unchanged; and 2017 prevalence decreases by 50% by 2060. We used a probabilistic Markov model to integrate calendar trends in incidence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast their future occurrence in the population of England and Wales. Assuming the hypertension prevalence trend modifies health transition probabilities, we compared mortality outcomes and the burden of dementia and disability to 2060 for the scenarios.
findingsIf the decline in hypertension prevalence stops, there would be a slight increase in the number of additional deaths to 2060 (22·9 [95% uncertainty interval 19·0-26·6] more deaths per 100 000 population), although the burdens of disability and dementia in absolute terms would change little. Alternatively, if the downward hypertension prevalence trend accelerates (with prevalence falling by 50% between 2017 and 2060), there would be a modest additional reduction in deaths (57·0 [50·4-63·5] fewer deaths per 100 000 population), a small increase in dementia burden (9·0 [5·1-13·2] more cases per 100 000 population), no significant effect on disability burden, and an 8% gain in healthy life expectancy at age 65 years from 2020 to 2060 (5·3 years vs 4·9 years) compared with the baseline scenario.
interpretationThe major future impact of alternative hypertension prevention strategies appears to be on future life expectancy. The salutary effect of lower population blood pressure distribution on incidence of dementia and disability might not offset expansion of the susceptible population due to reduced mortality.
fundingBritish Heart Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.
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