ArticleScientific reports2023
Modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 with real data from Thailand.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modeling gonorrhea and HIV coinfection with predictive analytics for disability and mortality risks.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A rigorous theoretical and numerical analysis of a nonlinear reaction-diffusion epidemic model pertaining dynamics of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A novel simulation-based analysis of a stochastic HIV model with the time delay using high order spectral collocation technique.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Impacts of optimal control strategies on the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic spreading dynamics.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Computational and stability analysis of Ebola virus epidemic model with piecewise hybrid fractional operator.PloS one · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In recent years, COVID-19 has evolved into many variants, posing new challenges for disease control and prevention. The Omicron variant, in particular, has been found to be highly contagious. In this study, we constructed and analyzed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates vaccination and three different compartments of the infected population: asymptomatic [Formula: see text], symptomatic [Formula: see text], and Omicron [Formula: see text]. The model is formulated in the Caputo sense, which allows for fractional derivatives that capture the memory effects of the disease dynamics. We proved the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model, obtained the effective reproduction number, showed that the model exhibits both endemic and disease-free equilibrium points, and showed that backward bifurcation can occur. Furthermore, we documented the effects of asymptomatic infected individuals on the disease transmission. We validated the model using real data from Thailand and found that vaccination alone is insufficient to completely eradicate the disease. We also found that Thailand must monitor asymptomatic individuals through stringent testing to halt and subsequently eradicate the disease. Our study provides novel insights into the behavior and impact of the Omicron variant and suggests possible strategies to mitigate its spread.
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