ArticleTobacco control2025
How has the tobacco industry passed tax changes through to consumers in 12 sub-Saharan African countries?
Article in Tobacco control, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Barriers to raising taxes on tobacco products in Uganda: a political economy analysis.Health policy and planning · 2026Article
- Making cigarette taxes more effective in Mozambique: A simulation analysis using the Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation Model (TETSiM).PloS one · 2026Article
- Pricing strategies of the tobacco companies in response to cigarette excise tax increases in Montenegro.PloS one · 2026Article
- Tobacco industry pricing strategies during recent tax adjustments in Mexico: evidence from sales data.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Description of the African Cigarette Prices Project Data.Data in brief · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionTobacco taxation is only effective in reducing consumption when it is translated into higher prices. This study aims to investigate to what extent the tobacco industry (TI) passes tax increases over to consumers by increasing the retail price of cigarettes in 12 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries.
methodsAfrican Cigarette Prices Project and WHO's Global Tobacco Epidemic Reports data were used to calculate the rate of tax pass-through by decomposing the retail price of cigarettes into tax and net prices between 2016 and 2020. Percentage change in net price was used to identify industry pricing behaviour, in both packs and single-stick sales. TI pricing strategies were examined by country, producer type, producers, and cigarette price segment.
resultsThere were mixed TI strategies, with taxes primarily overshifted (Botswana, Madagascar, Tanzania, Zimbabwe), undershifted (Ethiopia, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia) or a mix of both (Malawi, Nigeria). The detail varied between countries, over time, and between the different brands/segments offered. Patterns for single-stick sales were broadly similar to that of packs but with some differences observed in particular countries/years. Pricing strategies for the various transnational tobacco companies and domestic producers were similar but the changes in net price for the latter were larger. The country tax level/type and the size of tax change did not seem to be an obvious influence.
conclusionThis paper provides an overview of TI pricing strategies in response to tax increases in SSA. Governments must monitor how the TI responds to tax changes to ensure that tax increases are effective in impacting price.
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