Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37556532›Full record

ArticleScience advances2023

Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries.

Alberto Montanari, Hung Nguyen, Sara Rubinetti, Serena Ceola, Stefano Galelli, Angelo Rubino, Davide Zanchettin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Alberto MontanariDepartment of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering (DICAM), Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-7428-0410
Hung NguyenLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0174-6659
Sara RubinettiAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, List/Sylt, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-2236-6113
Serena CeolaDepartment of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering (DICAM), Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-1757-509X
Stefano GalelliLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2316-3243
Angelo RubinoDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-3857-4811
Davide ZanchettinDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-5929-6983

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on a 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that the 2022 hydrological drought is the worst event (30% lower than the second worst, with a six-century return period), part of an increasing trend in severe drought occurrence. The decline in summer river flows (-4.14 cubic meters per second per year), which is more relevant than the precipitation decline, is attributed to a combination of changes in the precipitation regime, resulting in a decline of snow fraction (-0.6% per year) and snowmelt (-0.18 millimeters per day per year), and to increasing evaporation rate (+0.013 cubic kilometers per year) and irrigated areas (100% increment from 1900). Our study presents a compelling case where the hydrological impact of climate change is exacerbated by local changes in hydrologic seasonality and water use.

Identifiers

PMID37556532
PMCPMC10411875

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.