Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37553037›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of preventive medicine2024

A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax in California: Projected Benefits for Population Obesity and Health Equity.

Matthew M Lee, Jessica L Barrett, Erica L Kenney, Jessie Gouck, Lauren M Whetstone, Stephanie M McCulloch, Angie L Cradock, Michael W Long, Zachary J Ward, Benjamin Rohrer and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of preventive medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Review
  4. Who pays and Who benefits? A distributional health-economic evaluation of strengthening the UK soft drinks industry levy.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026
    Article
  5. Commercial Determinants of Latinx Health: A Scoping Review of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in the USA.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Matthew M LeeDepartment of Nutrition, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts. Electronic address: mlee8@g.harvard.edu.
Jessica L BarrettDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Erica L KenneyDepartment of Nutrition, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts; Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Jessie GouckCalifornia Department of Public Health, Sacramento, California.
Lauren M WhetstoneCalifornia Department of Public Health, Sacramento, California.
Stephanie M McCullochDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Angie L CradockDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Michael W LongDepartment of Prevention and Community Health, George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, Washington, District of Columbia.
Zachary J WardCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Benjamin RohrerCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
David R WilliamsDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Steven L GortmakerDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.

Funding

Prevention Research Center on Nutrition and Physical ActivityU48DP006376 · DP · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI GORTMAKER, STEVEN L · 2018 to 2023
$5.0M
Simulation Modeling and Disparities in Obesity and Chronic DiseaseR01HL146625 · NHLBI · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI GORTMAKER, STEVEN L · 2019 to 2022
$1.6M
NCCDPHP CDC HHS U48 DP006376NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL146625
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionAmid the successes of local sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes, interest in state-wide policies has grown. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of a hypothetical 2-cent-per-ounce excise tax in California and its implications for population health and health equity.

methodsUsing the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model, tax impacts on health, health equity, and cost effectiveness over 10 years in California were projected, both overall and stratified by race/ethnicity and income. Expanding on previous models, differences in the effect of intake of SSBs on weight by BMI category were incorporated. Costing was performed in 2020, and analyses were conducted in 2021-2022.

resultsThe tax is projected to save $4.55 billion in healthcare costs, prevent 266,000 obesity cases in 2032, and gain 114,000 quality-adjusted life years. Cost-effectiveness metrics, including cost/quality-adjusted life year gained, were cost saving. Spending on SSBs was projected to decrease by $33 per adult and $26 per child overall in the first year. Reductions in obesity prevalence for Black and Hispanic Californians were 1.8 times larger than for White Californians, and reductions for adults with lowest incomes (<130% Federal Poverty Level) were 1.4 times the reduction among those with highest incomes (>350% Federal Poverty Level). The tax is projected to save $112 in obesity-related healthcare costs per $1 invested.

conclusionsA state-wide SSB tax in California would be cost saving, lead to reductions in obesity and improvement in SSB-related health equity, and lead to overall improvements in population health. The policy would generate more than $1.6 billion in state tax revenue annually that can also be used to improve health equity.

Indexed as

Health EquityPediatric ObesitySugar-Sweetened BeveragesAdultBeveragesCaliforniaChildHumansTaxes

Identifiers

PMID37553037
PMCPMC10840962

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.