Monte Carlo confidence intervals for the indirect effect with missing data.

Missing data is a common occurrence in mediation analysis. As a result, the methods used to construct confidence intervals around the indirect effect should consider missing data. Previous research has demonstrated that, for the indirect effect in data with complete cases, the Monte Carlo method performs as well as nonparametric bootstrap confidence intervals (see MacKinnon et al., Multivariate Behavioral Research, 39(1), 99-128, 2004; Preacher & Selig, Communication Methods and Measures, 6(2), 77-98, 2012; Tofighi & MacKinnon, Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal, 23(2), 194-205, 2015). In this manuscript, we propose a simple, fast, and accurate two-step approach for generating confidence intervals for the indirect effect, in the presence of missing data, based on the Monte Carlo method. In the first step, an appropriate method, for example, full-information maximum likelihood or multiple imputation, is used to estimate the parameters and their corresponding sampling variance-covariance matrix in a mediation model. In the second step, the sampling distribution of the indirect effect is simulated using estimates from the first step. A confidence interval is constructed from the resulting sampling distribution. A simulation study with various conditions is presented. Implications of the results for applied research are discussed.