ArticleBMJ open2023
Investigation on the possibility of dynamic COVID-Zero strategy in China: a population-based transmission model analysis and economic evaluation.
Article in BMJ open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Economic Value of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions for Influenza and COVID-19: A Systematic Review.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Pooled it
- The role of economic evaluation in modelling public health and social measures for pandemic policy: a systematic review.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo explore the feasible and cost-effective intervention strategies to achieve the goal of dynamic COVID-Zero in China.
designA Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model combined economic evaluation was used to generate the number of infections, the time for dynamic COVID-Zero and calculate cost-effectiveness under different intervention strategies. The model simulated the 1 year spread of COVID-19 in mainland China after 100 initial infections were imported.
interventionsAccording to close contact tracing degree from 80% to 100%, close contact tracing time from 2 days to 1 day, isolation time from 14 days to 7 days, scope of nucleic acid testing (NAT) from 10% to 100% and NAT frequency from weekly to every day, 720 scenarios were simulated. OUTCOME MEASURE: Cumulative number of infections (CI), social COVID-Zero duration (SCD), total cost (TC) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.
results205 of 720 scenarios could achieve the total COVID-Zero since the first case was reported. The fastest and most cost-effective strategy was Scenario 680, in which all close contacts were traced within 1 day, the isolation time was 14 days and 10% of the national population was randomly checked for NAT every day. In Scenario 680, the CI was 280 (100 initial infections) and the SCD was 13 days. The TC was ¥4126 hundred million and the cost of reducing one infection was ¥47 470. However, when the close contact tracing time was 2 days and the degree of close contact tracing was 80%-90%, the SCD would double to 24-101 days and the TCs increased by ¥16 505 to 37 134 hundred million compared with Scenario 680.
conclusionsIf all close contact was controlled within 1 day, the rapid social COVID-Zero can be achieved effectively and cost-effectively. Therefore, the future prevention and control of emerging respiratory infectious diseases can focus on enhancing the ability of close contact tracing.
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