Eutrophication trends in the coastal region of the Great Tokyo area based on long-term trends of Secchi depth.

Background: The coastal ocean's environment has changed owing to human activity, with eutrophication becoming a global concern. However, oligotrophication occurs locally and decreases fish production. Historically, the Secchi depth has been used as an index of primary productivity. We analyzed the results of over-a-half-century routine observations conducted in Sagami Bay and Tokyo Bay to verify the eutrophication/oligotrophication trend based on Secchi depth observations in a temperate coastal region near the Greater Tokyo area, which is highly affected by human activities. Methods: Data recorded in the Kanagawa Prefecture from 1963 to 2018 were used in this study. After quality control, the observation area was divided into Tokyo Bay, the Uraga Channel (outer part of Tokyo Bay), Sagami Bay (northern part), and Sagami Nada (southern part of Sagami Bay) based on temperature and salinity at a depth of 10 m. Because the environmental parameters showed autocorrelation, time-series and correlation analyses were conducted using generalized least squares (GLS) models with a Prais-Winsten estimator. Results: The Secchi depth was the shallowest in Tokyo Bay, followed by the Uraga Channel, Sagami Bay, and Sagami Nada, and was deep in winter (December and January), and shallow in summer (July) in all regions. The correlated analyses using the GLS model indicated that the shallowing of Secchi depth was significantly associated with decreases in temperature, salinity, and phosphate concentration. However, time-series analyses using GLS models indicated that the Secchi depth was significantly shallower, except in Tokyo Bay, where the surface temperature was significantly warming and the surface phosphate and nitrite concentrations decreased everywhere. A significant shallowing trend of the Secchi depth was mostly observed during the light-limiting season (January-March). Discussion: Correlation analyses suggested the importance of horizontal advective transport, particularly from Tokyo Bay, which has cold and less saline eutrophic water. However, long-term shallowing of the Secchi depth was associated with warming, and changes in salinity were not significant in most months when the Secchi depth trend was significant. Thus, horizontal advection is not the primary cause of long-term eutrophication. Because the eutrophication trend was primarily observed in winter, when light is the major limiting factor of primary production, we concluded that warming provides a better photoenvironment for phytoplankton growth and induces eutrophication. As a decline in anthropogenic nutrient input after 1990s was reported in the investigated area, the long-term eutrophication trend was most likely caused due to global warming, which is another alarming impact resulting from human activities.