Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37501660›Full record

ArticleRoyal Society open science2023

COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination: modelling, analysis and simulations.

Joseph Malinzi, Victor Ogesa Juma, Chinwendu Emilian Madubueze, John Mwaonanji, Godwin Nwachukwu Nkem, Elias Mwakilama, Tinashe Victor Mupedza, Vincent Nandwa Chiteri, Emmanuel Afolabi Bakare, Isabel Linda-Zulu Moyo and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Royal Society open science, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Joseph MalinziFaculty of Science and Engineering, Department of Mathematics, University of Eswatini, Private Bag 4, Kwaluseni, Swaziland.
Victor Ogesa JumaMultiscale in Mechanical and Biological Engineering (M2BE), Instituto de Investigación en Ingeniería de Aragón (I3A), University of Zaragoza, 50018 Zaragoza, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-9832-0955
Chinwendu Emilian MadubuezeDepartment of Mathematics, Federal University of Agriculture, Makurdi, Nigeria.ORCID 0000-0003-3391-3896
John MwaonanjiDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Malawi University of Business and Applied Sciences, Blantyre, Malawi.
Godwin Nwachukwu NkemDepartment of Mathematics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
Elias MwakilamaDepartment of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya.
Tinashe Victor MupedzaDepartment of Mathematics & Computational Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, Box MP167 Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe.
Vincent Nandwa ChiteriDepartment of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
Emmanuel Afolabi BakareInternational Centre for Applied Mathematical Modelling and Data Analytics, Federal University Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria.
Isabel Linda-Zulu MoyoFaculty of Science and Engineering, Department of Mathematics, University of Eswatini, Private Bag 4, Kwaluseni, Swaziland.
Eduard Campillo-FunolletDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YR, UK.
Farai NyabadzaDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park 2006, South Africa.
Anotida MadzvamuseDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park 2006, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0002-9511-8903

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects remain a global challenge including the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics and its potential trends amidst variations in COVID-19 vaccine coverage is therefore crucial for policy makers in the SSA region where vaccine uptake is generally lower than in high-income countries. Using a compartmental epidemiological model, this study aims to forecast the potential COVID-19 trends and determine how long a wave could be, taking into consideration the current vaccination rates. The model is calibrated using South African reported data for the first four waves of COVID-19, and the data for the fifth wave are used to test the validity of the model forecast. The model is qualitatively analysed by determining equilibria and their stability, calculating the basic reproduction number

Indexed as

bifurcation analysisCOVID-19mathematical modellingparameter estimationsensitivity analysisvaccinations

Identifiers

PMID37501660
PMCPMC10369038

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.