Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37494742›Full record

ArticleWater research2023

Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks.

Tin Phan, Samantha Brozak, Bruce Pell, Jeremiah Oghuan, Anna Gitter, Tao Hu, Ruy M Ribeiro, Ruian Ke, Kristina D Mena, Alan S Perelson and 2 more

Open access · greenAbstract readCase Reports
In one paragraph

Article in Water research, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.5field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.

Tin PhanTheoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87544, USA.
Samantha BrozakSchool of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, AZ 85281, USA.
Bruce PellDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, Lawrence Technological University, MI 48075, USA.
Jeremiah OghuanSchool of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
Anna GitterSchool of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
Tao HuDepartment of Geography, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA.
Ruy M RibeiroTheoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87544, USA.
Ruian KeTheoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87544, USA.
Kristina D MenaSchool of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA; Texas Epidemic Public Health Institute, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
Alan S PerelsonTheoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87544, USA; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA.
Yang KuangSchool of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, AZ 85281, USA.
Fuqing WuSchool of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA; Texas Epidemic Public Health Institute, Houston, TX 77030, USA. Electronic address: fuqing.wu@uth.tmc.edu.
Los Alamos National Laboratory · USArizona State University · USPublic Health Institute · USThe University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston · USLawrence Technological University · USOklahoma State University · USSanta Fe Institute · US

Funding

Addressing COVID-19 Testing Disparities in Vulnerable Populations Using a Community JITAI (Just in Time Adaptive Intervention) Approach: RADxUP Phase IIIU01TR004355 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HLTH SCI CTR HOUSTON · PI BAUER, CICI, CRUM, MICHELLE · 2023 to 2023
$2.2M
Predictive Modeling of Pattern Formation Driven by Synthetic Gene NetworksR01GM131405 · NIGMS · ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY-TEMPE CAMPUS · PI KUANG, YANG · 2018 to 2021
$1.5M
NCATS NIH HHS U01 TR004355NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM131405NIOSH CDC HHS T42 OH008421
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Wastewater surveillance has proved to be a valuable tool to track the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most studies using wastewater surveillance data revolve around establishing correlations and lead time relative to reported case data. In this perspective, we advocate for the integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic within-host and between-host models to better understand, monitor, and predict viral disease outbreaks. Dynamic models overcome emblematic difficulties of using wastewater surveillance data such as establishing the temporal viral shedding profile. Complementarily, wastewater surveillance data bypasses the issues of time lag and underreporting in clinical case report data, thus enhancing the utility and applicability of dynamic models. The integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models can enhance real-time tracking and prevalence estimation, forecast viral transmission and intervention effectiveness, and most importantly, provide a mechanistic understanding of infectious disease dynamics and the driving factors. Dynamic modeling of wastewater surveillance data will advance the development of a predictive and responsive monitoring system to improve pandemic preparedness and population health.

Indexed as

COVID-19Disease OutbreaksHumansPandemicsRNA, ViralWastewaterWastewater-Based Epidemiological MonitoringRNA, ViralWastewaterMechanistic modelPublic health preparednessViral transmissionWastewater surveillanceWithin-host and between-host dynamics

Identifiers

PMID37494742
PMCPMC12967208
OpenAlexW4384470939

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.