ArticleNature communications2023
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 57 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
57 citing papers in PubMed, 374 citations in OpenAlex.
- Reversible Atlantic overturning despite continued Greenland ice sheet melt.Science advances · 2026Article
- Regime shifts of AMOC-sea surface temperature relationship.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Global biosphere productivity response to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse during Heinrich Stadial 4.Science advances · 2026Article
- Early warning signals for loss of control in complex systems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Volcanic eruptions caused weakening AMOC during the preindustrial past millennium.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes.Science advances · 2026Article
- Resilience of Breeding Boreal Waterbirds to Harsh Wintering Conditions: Could Climate Warming Smooth Population Declines?Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Centennial-scale intensifications of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Heinrich Stadial 1.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The effects of a constructed closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC tipping behavior.Science advances · 2026Article
- Detecting and forecasting tipping points from sample variance alone.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Characterising Epigenetic Tipping Points using a Spectral Dimension Reduction Approach.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Volcanism-induced collapse and recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under glacial conditions.Science advances · 2026Article
- Complex perishable technologies from the North American Great Basin reveal specialized Late Pleistocene adaptations.Science advances · 2026Article
- Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.Communications earth & environment · 2026Article
- Moving north: Warmer waters expand populations of deep-water cartilaginous fishes into Arctic waters.PloS one · 2026Article
- Disconnection of the late Pliocene Agulhas Leakage from Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.Nature geoscience · 2026Article
- Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Recent and early 20th century destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic recorded in bivalves.Science advances · 2025Article
- Predicting regime shifts and beyond.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Warming and salinity changes of the upper ocean Caribbean through-flow since 1960.Scientific reports · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.