ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2023
Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Wastewater Surveillance Data, Denmark, October 2021-June 2022.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of enteric virus shedding in human excretions.EBioMedicine · 2025Pooled it
- Environmental and microbial factors shaping SARS-CoV-2 RNA decay in wastewater: insights from batch tests and a lab-scale sewer pipeline simulator.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Wastewater-Based Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and Modeling of COVID-19 Infection Trends.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Wastewater as an early indicator for short-term forecasting COVID-19 hospitalization in Germany.BMC public health · 2025Article
- National Wastewater Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 Across Provinces and Regions in the Republic of Korea From January to August 2023.Journal of Korean medical science · 2025Article
- Data for action - description of the automated COVID-19 surveillance system in Denmark and lessons learnt, January 2020 to June 2024.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Development of Bayesian segmented Poisson regression model to forecast COVID-19 dynamics based on wastewater data: a case study in Nanning City, China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Association between SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and COVID-19 hospitalizations in three countries, 2022-2024.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities.Water research · 2025Article
- Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Online dashboards for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based epidemiology.Future microbiology · 2024Review
- Article
- Evaluation of the pilot wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Norway, June 2022 - March 2023.BMC public health · 2023Article
- First cases of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 in Denmark, 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Analysis of wastewater is used in many settings for surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, but it remains unclear how well wastewater testing results reflect incidence. Denmark has had an extensive wastewater analysis system that conducts 3 weekly tests in ≈200 sites and has 85% population coverage; the country also offers free SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests to all residents. Using time series analysis for modeling, we found that wastewater data, combined with information on circulating variants and the number of human tests performed, closely fitted the incidence curve of persons testing positive. The results were consistent at a regional level and among a subpopulation of frequently tested healthcare personnel. We used wastewater analysis data to estimate incidence after testing was reduced to a minimum after March 2022. These results imply that data from a large-scale wastewater surveillance system can serve as a good proxy for COVID-19 incidence and for epidemic control.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.