Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37474597›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2023

Predicting sepsis onset using a machine learned causal probabilistic network algorithm based on electronic health records data.

John Karlsson Valik, Logan Ward, Hideyuki Tanushi, Anders F Johansson, Anna Färnert, Mads Lause Mogensen, Brian W Pickering, Vitaly Herasevich, Hercules Dalianis, Aron Henriksson and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  16. [Data-driven intensive care: a lack of comprehensive datasets].Medizinische Klinik, Intensivmedizin und Notfallmedizin · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

John Karlsson Valik *Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Stockholm, Sweden. john.karlsson.valik@ki.se.
Logan Ward *Treat Systems ApS, Aalborg, Denmark.
Hideyuki TanushiDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Stockholm, Sweden.
Anders F JohanssonDepartment of Clinical Microbiology and the Laboratory for Molecular Infection Medicine (MIMS), Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
Anna FärnertDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Stockholm, Sweden.
Mads Lause MogensenTreat Systems ApS, Aalborg, Denmark.
Brian W PickeringDepartment of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
Vitaly HerasevichDepartment of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
Hercules DalianisDepartment of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Aron HenrikssonDepartment of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Pontus NauclérDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Stockholm, Sweden.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality and early identification improves survival. With increasing digitalization of health care data automated sepsis prediction models hold promise to aid in prompt recognition. Most previous studies have focused on the intensive care unit (ICU) setting. Yet only a small proportion of sepsis develops in the ICU and there is an apparent clinical benefit to identify patients earlier in the disease trajectory. In this cohort of 82,852 hospital admissions and 8038 sepsis episodes classified according to the Sepsis-3 criteria, we demonstrate that a machine learned score can predict sepsis onset within 48 h using sparse routine electronic health record data outside the ICU. Our score was based on a causal probabilistic network model-SepsisFinder-which has similarities with clinical reasoning. A prediction was generated hourly on all admissions, providing a new variable was registered. Compared to the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), which is an established method to identify sepsis, the SepsisFinder triggered earlier and had a higher area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.950 vs. 0.872), as well as area under precision-recall curve (APR) (0.189 vs. 0.149). A machine learning comparator based on a gradient-boosting decision tree model had similar AUROC (0.949) and higher APR (0.239) than SepsisFinder but triggered later than both NEWS2 and SepsisFinder. The precision of SepsisFinder increased if screening was restricted to the earlier admission period and in episodes with bloodstream infection. Furthermore, the SepsisFinder signaled median 5.5 h prior to antibiotic administration. Identifying a high-risk population with this method could be used to tailor clinical interventions and improve patient care.

Indexed as

Electronic Health RecordsSepsisAlgorithmsHospitalizationHospital MortalityHumansIntensive Care UnitsRetrospective StudiesROC Curve

Identifiers

PMID37474597
PMCPMC10359402

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.