ArticleNature communications2023
Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.
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Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Continental-wide prioritization of protected areas to address global and habitat-specific goals for avian biodiversity conservation.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Article
- Where Can a Threatened Pheasant Persist? Identifying Climate Change Refugia and Mapping Protection Gaps in China.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
- Providing regular and frequent maps of losses and gains of farmland birds based on European monitoring data.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Article
- Climate Change Predicted to Trigger an Upward Altitudinal Range Shift and Boost the Abundance of a Montane Rock Face Specialist, the Wallcreeper (Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Species range shifts often speed ahead of their modeled climatic niches.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Skeletal trait measurements for thousands of bird species.Scientific data · 2025Article
- The Role of Intrinsic Factors in Explaining Range Shifts of European Breeding Birds: A Meta-Analysis.Ecology and evolution · 2025Review
- Population trends are more strongly linked to environmental change and species traits in birds than mammals.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Using ecological niche modelling to prioritise areas for conservation of the critically endangered Buffy-Headed marmoset (Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- A new threshold selection method for species distribution models with presence-only data: Extracting the mutation point of the P/E curve by threshold regression.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- The relationship between the body and air temperature in a terrestrial ectotherm.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.Nature communications · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
71 authors.
Christine Howard *Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK. christine.howard@durham.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-7514-9721
Emma-Liina Marjakangas *The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID 0000-0002-5245-3779
Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez *Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain.
Pietro MilanesiSwiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-1878-9762
Aleksandre AbuladzeInstitute of Zoology, Ilia State University, Kakutsa Cholokashvili Ave 3 / 5, Tbilisi, 0162, Georgia.
Karen AghababyanBirdLinks Armenia (former TSE-Towards Sustainable Ecosystems) NGO, 87b Dimitrov, apt 14, Yerevan, Armenia.ORCID 0000-0002-8464-9645
Vitalie AjderSociety for Birds and Nature Protection, Leova, Republic of Moldova.
Volen ArkumarevBulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria, Sofia 1111, Yavorov complex, bl. 71, en. 1, ap. 1, Sofia, Bulgaria.
Dawn E BalmerBritish Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1947-0083
Hans-Günther BauerAtlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic.
Colin M BealeYork Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2960-5666
Taulant BinoAlbanian Ornithological Society, Rr. "Vaso Pasha", Nd. 4, Apt. 3, 1004, Tirana, Albania.
Kerem Ali BoylaWWF Turkey, Büyük Postane Caddesi No: 19 Kat: 5, 34420, Bahçekapı-Fatih, İstanbul, Turkey.
Ian J BurfieldBirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK.
Brian BurkeBirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20, Block D, Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones, County Wicklow, Ireland.
Brian CaffreyBirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20, Block D, Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones, County Wicklow, Ireland.
Tomasz ChodkiewiczMuseum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, 00-679, Warszawa, Poland.ORCID 0000-0002-9342-2370
Juan Carlos Del MoralSociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053, Madrid, Spain.
Vlatka Dumbovic MazalInstitute for Environment and Nature, Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, Radnicka cesta 80, 10 000, Zagreb, Croatia.
Néstor FernándezGerman Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9645-8571
Lorenzo FornasariAssociazione FaunaViva, Via Fumagalli 6, 20143, Milano, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-2331-725X
Bettina GerlachDDA-Federation of German Avifaunists, An den Speichern 2, D-48157, Münster, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-1994-504X
Carlos GodinhoMED-Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development; LabOr-Laboratório de Ornitologia Universidade de Évora Pólo da Mitra, Apartado 94, 7002-774, Évora, Portugal.ORCID 0000-0001-8892-6315
Sergi HerrandoEcological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-5153-7970
Christina IeronymidouBirdLife Cyprus, P.O. Box 12026, Nicosia, 2340, Cyprus.
Alison JohnstonCentre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8221-013X
Mihailo JovicevicPro Natura, Donji Crnci bb, 81412, Spuž, Montenegro.
Mikhail KalyakinAtlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic.
Verena KellerSwiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-5905-8739
Peter KnausSwiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-8165-2139
Dražen KotrošanOrnithological society "Naše ptice", Semira Frašte 6, 71 000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Tatiana KuzmenkoUkrainian Society for the Protection of Birds, P.O. Box 33, Kyiv, 01103, Ukraine.ORCID 0000-0001-6926-3966
Domingos LeitãoSociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves, Av. Almirante Gago Coutinho, 46A, 1700-031, Lisboa, Portugal.
Åke LindströmDepartment of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-5597-6209
Qenan MaxhuniKosovo Ornithological Society, Str. Hysni Gashi no. 28, Kalabri, 10 000, Prishtinë, Republic of Kosovo.ORCID 0000-0002-2493-6714
Tomaž MiheličDOPPS-BirdLife Slovenia, Tržaška c. 2, SI, 1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Tibor MikuskaCroatian Society for Birds and Nature Protection, Gundulićeva 19a, HR-31000, Osijek, Croatia.
Blas MolinaSociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053, Madrid, Spain.
Károly NagyMME BirdLife Hungary, 1121 Költő u. 21, Budapest, Hungary.
David NobleBritish Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK.
Ingar Jostein ØienBirdLife Norway. Sandgata 30b, NO-7012, Trondheim, Norway.ORCID 0000-0003-0986-2726
Jean-Yves PaquetNatagora, Traverse des muses 1, 5000, Namur, Belgium.
Clara PladevallAndorra Research + Innovation, Av. Rocafort 21-23, AD600, Sant Julià de Lòria, Andorra.
Danae PortolouHellenic Ornithological Society / BirdLife Greece, Agiou Konstantinou 52, Athens, 10437, Greece.ORCID 0000-0002-5709-2802
Dimitrije RadišićUniversity of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.ORCID 0000-0003-2716-9829
Saša RajkovCenter for Biodiversity Research, Maksima Gorkog 40/3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia.ORCID 0000-0002-5063-2044
Draženko Z RajkovićCenter for Biodiversity Research, Maksima Gorkog 40/3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia.ORCID 0000-0002-2626-0076
Liutauras RaudonikisLithuanian Ornithological Society, Naugarduko st. 47-3, LT-03208, Vilnius, Lithuania.
Thomas SattlerSwiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-5359-6387
Darko SaveljićEnvironmental Protection Agency of Montenegro, IV proleterske 19, 81000, Podgorica, Montenegro.
Paul ShimmingsBirdLife Norway. Sandgata 30b, NO-7012, Trondheim, Norway.
Jovica SjenicicOrnithological society "Naše ptice", Semira Frašte 6, 71 000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Karel ŠťastnýCzech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Dept. of Ecology, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6-Suchdol, Prague, Czech Republic.
Stoycho StoychevBulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria, Sofia 1111, Yavorov complex, bl. 71, en. 1, ap. 1, Sofia, Bulgaria.
Iurii StrusNature reserve "Roztochya", Sichovyh Striltsiv 7, 81070, Ivano-Frankove, Ukraine.ORCID 0000-0002-3853-7917
Christoph SudfeldtDDA-Federation of German Avifaunists, An den Speichern 2, D-48157, Münster, Germany.
Elchin SultanovAzerbaijan Ornithological Society, M. Mushfiq 4B, ap.60, Baku, AZ1004, Azerbaijan Republic.
Tibor SzépMME BirdLife Hungary, 1121 Költő u. 21, Budapest, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0002-4569-7425
Norbert TeufelbauerBirdLife Österreich, Museumsplatz 1/10/8, A-1070, Wien, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-3932-3897
Danka UzunovaMacedonian Ecological Society, Blvd. Boris Trajkovski Str. 7, 9a, Skopje, N, Macedonia.
Chris A M van TurnhoutSovon-Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Metodija VelevskiMacedonian Ecological Society, Blvd. Boris Trajkovski Str. 7, 9a, Skopje, N, Macedonia.ORCID 0000-0003-4266-1897
Thomas VikstrømDansk Ornitologisk Forening (DOF-BirdLife DK), Copenhagen, Denmark.
Alexandre VintchevskiTAA "Dzikaja pryroda", Parnikovaya Street 11, office 4, Minsk, 220114, Belarus.
Olga VoltzitZoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow, 125009, Russia.ORCID 0000-0003-4598-2071
Petr VoříšekAtlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0002-8940-0507
Tomasz WilkPolish Society for the Protection of Birds, Odrowąża 24, 05-270, Marki, Poland.
Damaris ZurellInstitute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4628-3558
Lluís BrotonsEcological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain.
Aleksi LehikoinenThe Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID 0000-0002-1989-277X
Stephen G WillisConservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK. s.g.willis@durham.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-8656-5808
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
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